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Your Saturday Forecast – Rain/Storms end across SE TX

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After an active overnight with multiple reports of tornadoes and flooding across east Texas, things will calm down considerably today and through Sunday.  A cold front has moved into the state and is currently stalled out diagonally from northeast Texas down through south central and southwest Texas.  Ongoing storms across southeast Texas should move offshore within the next couple of hours.  If the atmosphere down there can recover sufficiently by this afternoon, we could see some redevelopment of storms ahead of the stalled frontal boundary, but at this time, that looks like a rather slim chance.  Best chance for seeing that would likely reside further south along the coastal bend where the atmosphere is less worked over by this morning’s storms and we get a bit of a seabreeze front moving onshore this afternoon.  Threats with any additional storm development will be gusty winds and maybe some hail.  Widespread severe is not expected.

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Further north across the panhandle region, a weakish piece of upper level energy will kick off a few chances for showers and storms today mainly across eastern New Mexico, but some of this activity could push into the western panhandle later this afternoon, evening and possibly into the overnight hours.  We even have a chance for some rain/snow mix across the far northern panhandle/Oklahoma panhandle, though it’s highly unlikely to move much beyond the western Oklahoma panhandle.  Everywhere else…a really nice day is expected with mild highs and drier air behind the aforementioned cold front.  Highs will be a good 10+ degrees below normal across the panhandle and reaching down into northwest Texas.  Further south, still several degrees below average and with less humid air in place across a good 3/4ths of the state, it will be very pleasant for any outdoor activities you might have planned for this afternoon.  Lows tonight…chilly and late winter-like across the panhandle, but quite mild and more typical of summer across deep south Texas.  Texas can can be very special like that from time to time!

Highs Today Lows Tonight

For the longer range into next week…widespread rain chances return by Monday then a blocking pattern is expecting to set leaving us with high pressure overhead for much of the week after Monday.  This will lead to mild conditions and little chances for rain until we get into the latter part of the week when we may see some rain and storm chances return to western Texas and the panhandle region.  I think after this past week, we all need a chance for things to calm down for a bit and dry out.

Your Overnight Severe Weather Forecast

Shortly before 9 PM we’re down to a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the state. A large area of rain and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across Northeast Texas and East Texas. Several locations have received 3 to 5 inches of rain today with flash flooding an issue. Be mindful of flooded roadways and that you might not be able to see them easily at night. I myself almost had an issue with a flooded road on a chase today. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The tornado threat – while not zero – has diminished compared to this afternoon in those two regions.

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A squall line is in the process of developing from near Paris southwest through Terrell to Waco and Fort Hood.   This line of storms is slowly pushing east. Some storms may produce hail up to the size of quarters and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. An isolated tornado is not out of the question but the overall tornado threat is diminishing. Localized flooding could occur especially in locations that have already received heavy rain today.

Overnight it’s possible a squall line takes shape in South-Central Texas into East Texas. Some of the storms in that squall line could be strong to severe with quarter size hail, damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The severe weather threat will not be as high compared to storms earlier this afternoon. Flash flooding is also a threat in East and Southeast Texas. The squall line itself could approach the Houston metro between 4 AM and 8 AM Saturday as it pushes into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains overnight. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a way to receive weather warnings tonight. WeatherRadio by WDT is a wonderful app my family and I personally use.

5:28pm Severe Weather Update – North Central Texas

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Multiple areas of storms have erupted across north central Texas over the past several hours.  So far, conditions in the immediate Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area have remained under control with no significant reports of very large hail or other damage….yet.  We still have a few more hours to go yet.  East of the DFW metro area, the main concern at this time is a tornado warned cell between Murchison and Edom moving east at 20mph.  I’ve not seen any confirmation of an actual tornado touch down, but whatever is, or was, there is likely rain-wrapped and will be impossible to see.  Seek shelter now if you are in the path of this storm…don’t wait for visual confirmation because you probably won’t be able to see it at all.

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A large portion of Denton and Collin County remain under Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  Hail up to 1.5 inches is likely with these storms as the continue off to the northeast.  The previous tornado warning for Grayson county has expired.

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Southwest of the DFW Metro, additional Severe warned storms are moving northeast and may pose a threat to areas south and southwest of Ft. Worth within the next hour.  Circulation has been noted with the storm currently over Comanche, but no confirmation of tornado touch down as of yet.  Treat this storm like it has one anyway and get into shelter if you’re in its path.  Hail up to 1.75 inches is also likely as this storm continues moving northeast at around 25.

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Complex Forecast with Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening

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A very complex and messy convective evolution is anticipated today due to a weak cap. Shortly before 9 AM we already had strong thunderstorms moving east across the Texas Panhandle. Some of those storms could become severe with a hail risk through the morning hours. By the early to mid afternoon its anticipated that convective development will occur from Northeast Texas into Central Texas. With little to no cap in place these storms could form pretty much anywhere versus off the dryline. Storm coverage could become widespread which would work to keep one storm from becoming too intense. Nevertheless the strongest storms will likely pose a severe weather risk with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. At the same time a dryline will surge east into western North Texas into western Central Texas by the afternoon hours. With a weak cap its likely thunderstorms will fire up east of the dryline by late afternoon. The strongest storms could be severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Low-level wind shear is actually pretty favorable for rotating storms today but the ‘messy’ storm evolution lowers my confidence in a more significant severe weather threat at this time. If we see any supercells become established that can dominate their local enviornment they could produce baseball size hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms will continue into Northeast Texas and East Texas overnight with the potential for one to four inches of rain through Saturday. That could cause some flooding issues since soils are saturated and rivers are still full.

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Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have an enhanced risk (category 3) placed across Texoma into North Texas and Northeast Texas. A category 2 severe weather risk includes the Texas Panhandle, North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas. As stated above the forecast today is very complex – also known as uncertain. The enhanced risk has been placed where confidence is at least medium that there will be several severe weather reports today. That is also where the threat for isolated tornadoes is highest due to a warm front that will enhance low-level wind shear. Large hail is likely with the strongest storms today. If we see any dominant supercells take hold than the threat of very large hail up to the size of baseballs will increase. Localized damaging wind gusts are possible. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out – but that threat could locally be enhanced where the warm front sets up along the Red River if we see supercells this afternoon.

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9:20pm Severe Weather Update – Overnight Storm Chances

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Storms across the rolling plains have begun to wind down a bit over the past half hour, but the threat for strong to severe storms remains likely across the northeastern panhandle between Borger, Pampa and Canadian for the next couple of hours until they move across the state line into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in central Texas, a small cluster of severe storms has developed and is currently situated between Salado and Waco. Half-dollar to golf ball size hail will be likely within this cluster as it heads north.  Additional scattered development is expected to continue tonight as these storms begin to migrate towards the I-20 corridor along a northward advecting warm frontal boundary  While we typically see the capping inversion return during the overnight hours…which would typically decrease the chance for severe weather…in this particular case, the cap will be weak to zero with ample instability for continuous storm development into tomorrow morning.  Difficult to pinpoint exactly how widespread the storm coverage will become, or exactly what portions of the DFW metroplex could be impacted by severe weather during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, but it’s a pretty sure bet that quite a few of us will be awakened after midnight by some thunder and lightning at the very least.  Large hail, some possibly exceeding 2 inches, and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats overnight, especially as the storms move north of the I-20 corridor towards the Red River.  Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your area overnight!  If you use a weather app on your smartphone to alert you, make sure you don’t have your phone on Mute as most of those apps do not override that feature.

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