Daily chances for rowdy thunderstorms and windy conditions will be two weather concerns for Texas through the weekend. We’re not forecasting a repeat of last weekend’s washout. Don’t go expecting widespread rain this time around. However, we will be dealing with isolated to scattered severe storms east of the dryline. West of the dryline, there is high wildfire danger and blowing dust. Everyone will be getting in on the wind. The unpredictable nature of these weather conditions underscores the importance of continual monitoring and updates.

Today’s Weather

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible again today across West-Central Texas, the eastern Permian Basin, and the Big Country. Today’s storms may fire up a few counties west of where they began yesterday. We’re highlighting the 4 PM to 11 PM timeframe, though the first storms may start after 2 PM. The most intense storms, the few we’re expecting, will likely be severe. Very large hail up to the size of tennis balls localized damaging wind gusts, and blowing dust are the main hazards. The tornado risk is very low, but unlike yesterday, it is not zero. Storms should mostly be gone by late evening. Today, we’ll have a few storm chasers in the region to document any stormy mischief. You can tune in to our Texas Storm Chasers YouTube channel or the article/link on our website and mobile app for live video.

Thursday’s Severe Storm Setup

Thursday has the potential to be a busier day for severe thunderstorms across western portions of Texas. However, a few caveats complicate the forecast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, with a second round Thursday night into Friday morning.

The first round of isolated to scattered storms may develop after 3 PM in the eastern Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin. This is not guaranteed, as if the cap (lid on the atmosphere) is too strong or the upper-level lift doesn’t arrive until later in the evening, we may not see any storms at all. However, it’s reasonable to expect at least a few storms will fire up by early evening. Ingredients will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes. In fact, a stronger tornado can’t be ruled out in the Panhandle – contingent on a tornado, and a storm to produce said tornado. No storms would mean no tornadoes. This one will be a close call, and we’ll continue to analyze new data throughout the day and into Thursday morning.

As upper-level lift rapidly increases Thursday evening, we anticipate a line of thunderstorms to develop just east of the dryline across the eastern Panhandle, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, perhaps as far south as the Concho Valley. The most intense storms would likely be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly brief tornadoes. The line of storms will move east into Texoma, North Texas, and perhaps Central Texas (depending on how far south storms develop) Friday morning. Some weakening is expected, but intense storms will remain possible.

Storm chances shift east in Texas on Friday.

The storms will move into the Ark-La-Tex and Northeast Texas later Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, perhaps intensifying with daytime destabilization. Let’s get past today and get more data on tomorrow to grasp tomorrow night’s potential mischief better. Assuming the line of storms move out on Friday, we may see new – isolated severe storms develop off the dryline, which will likely be located near Interstate 35 in Texoma, North Texas, into the Hill Country by late afternoon. Very large hail and localized damaging winds would be likely. The tornado threat is uncertain at this time. Storms would diminish late Friday evening.

Saturday’s Severe Weather Risk

Have we had enough talk about storms? Too bad. Scattered severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. They’d likely fire off the dryline in portions of Northwest Texas and Texoma, moving east/northeast. Storms are likely across Oklahoma and Kansas, too. A broken line of storms, perhaps rowdy at times, will accompany a front moving across the eastern half of Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning. That’s as far out as I will venture in our spring-time stormy land tale today. Let’s deal with today before moving on to tomorrow and the rest of the upcoming stormy headaches. Even with all the storm chances I’ve described, most folks probably won’t be dealing with severe weather over the next several days. Of course, if you happen to be one of the unfortunate ones under an angry supercell or squall line, it will be unpleasant for you.

I’ll be up in the air…

Today is a bit of a scheduling nightmare for us. I will travel home by air after visiting family on the East Coast this evening. That will prevent me from conducting any live video coverage. We are expecting to have live storm-chasing video, though. All should return to normal on Thursday, and the typical Texas Weather Roundup schedule will continue. Our storm chasers will be out daily as we continue through the weekend with daily chances for Mother Nature’s mischief – not just in Texas but across the Southern Plains of the United States.

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