Discussion – 

34

Discussion – 

34

Texas: Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon into Thursday Morning

Be prepared for an increase in thunderstorm activity across the eastern seventy-five percent of Texas from this afternoon through Thursday. Some of the storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. The heavy rainfall also poses a risk of additional flooding.

Severe thunderstorms are possible after 3 PM through sunrise Thursday across the eastern seventy-five percent of Texas. Thunderstorms are not expected in the Coastal Bend or Deep South Texas; or in the western Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas.

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After 3 PM, expect the development of scattered severe thunderstorms near the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, West-Central Texas, the Permian Basin, into the eastern Big Bend. Most storms will move east/northeast, but be prepared for erratic storm motions due to storm splits/mergers. Some storms may even move southeast. Regardless, a superceulluar storm mode is anticipated. The most intense storms may produce baseball to softball size hail, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a tornado threat. Today’s tornado threat is low, but certainly not zero. We anticipate the need for live severe weather coverage for tornado warnings at some point later today and tonight.

While storms are ongoing in western portions of Texas this afternoon, we may also see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop in the Hill Country, South-Central Texas, and Central Texas. These storms are not guaranteed, but if they do develop, they could also become superceulluar with a risk of all modes of severe weather. A lower probability but one worth mentioning. Storms would move north/northeast.

By this evening, thunderstorms in western Texas will grow upscale into one or more clusters. Once upscale growth occurs, storms start moving east more quickly. Tonight’s squall line will move east across Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and South-Central Texas by early Thursday morning.

Damaging straight-line winds, pocket-change size hail, embedded spin-up tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are expected from the most intense storms. If storms develop in central portions of Texas this afternoon, those may also grow into a cluster. Eventually, storms are expected to move into Northeast Texas, East Texas, Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle on Thursday morning.Forecast rain totals across Texas through 7 AM Saturday. One to five inches of rain may fall across North Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, South-Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas. Flooding is a significant concern for the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Southeast Texas.

Storm chances Thursday Afternoon through Friday

If all storms over the next 24 hours clear out in time, we may see isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms develop late Thursday afternoon near the dryline in Northwest Texas and the Big Country. Those storms would likely be superceulluar with a risk of very large hail, localized damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday night into Friday morning across parts of the eastern half of Texas as a cool front slowly moves south.

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A cool front will bring comparatively cooler temperatures to the northern half of Texas on Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will drop back into the 70s and lower 80s, while the southern half will remain warm to hot. Southerly winds kick back into high gear on Sunday and Monday. Active weather appears likely to continue through the weekend into early next week. However, we may have lower severe thunderstorm potential over the weekend – with ‘just’ thunderstorm chances and locally heavy rainfall.

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David Reimer

34 Comments

  1. Conner Lee

    We need the rain here in San Angelo!

    • Carolyn Goodlett Chandler Lara

      Conner Lee , but no hail!

    • Conner Lee

      Carolyn Goodlett Chandler Lara I’m sure the roofers and body shops would argue that. Lol

  2. Tasha Johnson

    Pam Mann Wilkinson

    • Bobby Vaughn

      Josh Rojas yep they already raised the threat for us today I’ve been watching the models it will probably get nasty from 3pm through 6am tomorrow

  3. Kim Loucks

    I just hope we get some thunderstorms here by Austin this time!!

  4. Misty Beebe

    Right after Governor Ab. Put a bill out stipulation that weather modification and spraying over Texas STOP’S…
    NOT ODD AT ALL

    • MaKayln LaShay

      Tiffany Smith thank you!!!!

  5. Joseph Schley

    Amarillo and Canyon are once again going to miss out by a few miles. We need moisture and can’t seem to win so far this season. Drought is coming no matter what, but it be nice to have a little rain before it really gets going.

  6. Debbie Willeford

    Can anyone tell me where to find out if we had straight line winds, a microburst or maybe the wind speed in Pittsburg Friday?

  7. Bessie Conway

    Thanks for your updates

  8. Becky Pierce Jones

    We need rain in the Hill country.

  9. Becky Pierce Jones

    We need rain in the Hill country.

  10. Ryan Fitzgerald

    Tyler Klostermann

  11. Ryan Fitzgerald

    Tyler Klostermann

  12. Sheri L Buffington

    Bring it on

  13. Sheri L Buffington

    Bring it on

  14. Joanna Martin

    So ready for some rain!!!

  15. Joanna Martin

    So ready for some rain!!!

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