Rain chances return to Texas today, with more widespread precipitation this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this morning across the western third of Texas. A few storms are possible this afternoon in the Panhandle and West Texas. We’ll see those chances spread into the eastern half of Texas by tonight through Friday. Not everyone will receive rainfall – this will be a hit-or-miss scenario. One-tenth to one-quarter inch of rain is possible out of the heavier showers. Severe storms (tornadoes, large hail, destructive winds) are unlikely. It will be windy, though. Temperatures will remain above average for February standards.
Rain chances will increase, with thunderstorms also becoming likely Friday night and Saturday across the southeastern half of Texas. A few stronger storms, with hail and gusty winds, are possible during this timeframe. One to two inches of rainfall are possible across the eastern third of Texas, with over one-tenth of an inch back west encompassing the eastern half of Texas.
Winter Mischief in the Panhandle & West Texas?
Across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas, the forecast is more murky and dependent on the track of an upper-level storm system. A winter mix (rain, wet snow) is possible for some locations in those two regions. If some colder model data solutions are verified, we may see modest snow accumulations on Saturday night and Sunday. Yet, it’s also quite possible that there’s hardly any snow whatsoever. As we transition into the short-range over the next two to three days, we’ll better understand any snow-mischief potential.
Active Weather Continues Next Week
The Climate Prediction Center indicates we’ll remain in an unsettled weather pattern next week with below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation chances. We’re not anticipating an arctic airmass, but we may not be in the 70s and 80s. That being said, we’re not done with winter.
One indicator for longer-term pattern changes we use is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). That index shows signs of going strongly negative for the second half of February. Going negative would promote another cold-air intrusion into the Continental United States. Beyond that, who knows – but it does get cold during winter. (Yes, that’s common sense, but also a reminder that because False Spring has been around for two weeks, we’re not done with freezing temperatures yet).