A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued through 6 PM for much of North Texas and Northeast Texas. All of the D/FW Metroplex, Paris, Mount Pleasant, and Texarkana are included. We see a gradual uptick in thunderstorm intensity in the western/northern sections of the D/FW Metroplex.

Weather data from aircraft arriving/departing show a weakening cap and stronger instability than weather models had predicted. Those higher instability totals may lead to hail being larger than we previously anticipated if a sustained supercell can materialize this afternoon.

We previously stated hail up to the size of golf balls, but we might end up seeing damaging hail up to tennis-balls in the most intense storms. Localized damaging winds and an isolated tornado are also possible. Most storms will not produce large hail or damaging winds, but locally heavy rain is probable.

Simulated weather model radar from the 9 AM HRRR. This simulated radar data runs through this evening. Remember, this is only a model’s guess at what may happen – it isn’t written in stone.

The chance for a few severe thunderstorms will continue to shift east through the afternoon. A cold front will mark the end of severe weather chances today once it arrives at any given location in North/Northeast Texas. You’ll know the front has arrived when winds become gusty out of the northwest and temperatures/dewpoints drop off twenty degrees. The cold front should be through the D/FW Metroplex by 3 PM.

Isolated to scattered severe storms will remain possible across eastern North Texas and Northeast Texas through dinner-time. A conditional risk for a few hailers exists late tonight across the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, South-Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Regardless, we will see an uptick in storms late tonight in those regions with the chance of locally heavy rain.

You can keep tabs on the storms with our interactive weather radar on our website or download our free mobile app.