Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east across Northwest Texas and North Texas this morning. Cooler air aloft has moved in over the past few hours which has allowed more thunderstorms to develop. Severe weather is not expected, but a few storms may produce small hail and frequent lightning. Heavy rain is also occuring with the strongest activity which could cause minor, localized flooding. Showers are underway across East Texas and Southeast Texas this morning. Folks south of Beaumont picked up six to eight inches of rain overnight which resulted in localized flooding.

Rain chances remain high today across North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, into the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and East Texas. We’ll see additional activity develop throughout the day and into tonight. An additional one to two inches of rain may fall over the next twenty four hours across North and Central Texas. Flooding should not be more than a very localized problem.

Activity on Tuesday will be much weaker and more isolated with chances continuing across the southeastern two-thirds of Texas. It’ll be a hit or miss type day with light to moderate rain. A few heavier showers may occur, but should be lower in intensity than today. On Wednesday a cool front with much drier air will progress south through much of Texas. That’ll bring an end to most rain chances by the afternoon hours. The morning may start off with mist and fog across parts of Texas. Wednesday Night through Saturday should be mostly dry for much of Texas. Another storm system may impact parts of the state after that point.

For the first week in a while I can honestly say that temperatures will end up within their usual averages. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s into the lower 80s. Later this week high temperatures should range from the upper 50s into the upper 70s across Texas. Low temperatures will be warmer for the first half of the week closer to the coast, but will drop as drier air moves in after Wednesday. We do note that portions of the Texas Panhandle should experience their first freeze of the season by Wednesday morning. That’ll end the growing season across the northwestern Texas Panhandle.

A significant pattern change – with the possibility of our first real batch of cold air – could arrive around November 21-22. That still has plenty of time to go away, but the extended range models that look at pattern recognition seem to be hinting at a colder pattern change by mid/late month.