The morning weather model runs continue to indicate that a rare summer cooldown can be expected this weekend. A cool front will make slow southward progress into the state beginning Friday in the Texas Panhandle and pushing south into the Permian Basin and Big Country on Saturday. By Sunday the front along with associated precipitation chances should help keep temperatures comparatively cooler across parts of Texas. How far temperatures drop will depend on how much cloudiness is in place over the weekend.

At this point it seems reasonable that a good ten to fifteen degree drop in temperatures is possible for some. As usual the greatest temperature drop will be in northern sections of the state. We will hopefully see a small dip further south though as rain chances increase. This morning’s Global Forecast System keeps temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s on Sunday with clouds and showers. Whether or not we actually can stay that cool will depend on how much rain/clouds are in place.

Rain Chances Increasing on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The chance of showers and thunderstorms should pick up on Friday across the Texas Panhandle and western sections of Texas. By Saturday and Sunday those higher rain chances will shift east and south with a weak storm system. A multi-inch rain event is possible across Far West Texas and the Permian Basin. One half inch to two inches of rain may fall in portions of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and Central Texas through the weekend. Not everyone will see rains but I think its a good bet a majority of folks will at least see some rain nearby at some point in the Friday to Sunday timeframe.

Even if you don’t get wet the increased cloudiness should help keep temperatures a few degrees lower. Specific rain chances and rain totals will depend on localized factors such as training storms (moving over the same areas) and outflow boundaries that help focus storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected with weak wind shear and tropical moisture in place. Strong storms with frequent lightning and localized damaging winds will be possible.