Meteorological fall may have started on the first but it certainly won’t feel like it this Labor Day. A 20 to 30 knot southerly low-level jet has pumped high moisture levels in from the Gulf of Mexico overnight. The result of increased moisture means the oppressive summer humidity has returned in force across Texas. Dewpoint values range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across most of Texas. Temperatures won’t drop below the dewpoint value, so most folks only made it down into the middle 70s overnight. As usual in the summer months we’ll see temperatures climb pretty quickly after sunrise.

High temperatures across the state will top out in the 90s for most locations. The southern Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and higher elevations around Alpine will make it into the upper 80s this afternoon. With high humidity levels the heat index will be closer to 100 degrees this afternoon across the eastern half of Texas. Those planning on spending some time outdoors today should plan on having plenty of sunscreen and water.

With the abundant moisture and humidity it shouldn’t surprise you that we do have some rain chances today. For all purposes the rain chances will be along and southeast of Del Rio-San Angelo-D/FW-Paris, although only isolated chances will exist that far north. A better chance for scattered thunderstorms will exist this afternoon east/southeast of a Shreveport, Waco, Austin, to San Antonio line into Southeast Texas.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) simulated radar output shows the hit or miss shower scenario quite nicely. We should see the highest coverage of rain/storms in the middle afternoon hours. Some storms could briefly become strong with copious amounts of lightning, heavy rain, and localized gusty winds. Obviously we’re concerned about those outdoors in proximity to the popup storms today. As we progress towards 7 PM we’ll see activity on the downward trend. A few showers will remain possible overnight but coverage will be isolated.

This week will be warm and humid with more hit or miss storms. A cool front will try to push south through parts of Texas by Friday. This front doesn’t look like a true fall preview but we could see some nicer weather in the Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also increase in proximity of the front.