Clouds have entrenched themselves across Texas, and they won’t be going anywhere as an upper-level low pressure (storm system and large source of lift) pulls moisture into Texas. Most of today will remain dry, though light showers will be possible this evening across the western third of Texas and across South Texas. Meaningful precipitation won’t likely get going until very early Wednesday in those same regions.

Numerous rain showers are expected on Wednesday across the western half of Texas, excluding Far West Texas east into the Trans-Pecos region. We may also see isolated to scattered showers across South Texas, extending northeast into the Brazos Valley. A few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Severe storms (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail) are not expected this week in Texas. A cold rain is expected on Wednesday across the Panhandle and West Texas, with heavy snow remaining in Northeastern New Mexico. That may change as we get into Thursday morning.

A large area of rain will continue into Thursday across the western half of Texas, though it will begin to slowly expand further into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards Plateau. Rain will be heavy at times. The large area of rain will continue pushing east Thursday night into Friday, moving into Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, the Brazos Valley, and eventually the entirety of East Texas and Southeast Texas. Compared to a typical line of thunderstorms, we’ll be dealing with a more broad area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. It’ll be a nice change of pace, with no severe thunderstorm potential.

Watch today’s Texas Weather Roundup video for even more forecast details:

Snow chances for the Texas Panhandle and West Texas

Rain may change to wet snow across the northern half of the Texas Panhandle late Wednesday and Thursday. There remains uncertainty as snow chances will depend on the track of the upper-level low pressure (dynamic cooling from above versus having an arctic airmass in place). Several inches of snow are likely in Northeastern New Mexico tomorrow into Thursday morning.

One to four inches of snow may fall across the northwestern and northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow night into Thursday morning. One to two inches seems to be a safe bet for this morning’s forecast, but understand the actual ‘potential scale’ goes from zero snow all the way up to half a foot. It’ll either be raining a bunch, or snowing a lot. Either way, it’s a win in the moisture department.

I’m hopeful we’ll be able to narrow down the forecast this afternoon. We may also see rain change to snow as precipitation tries to end Thursday afternoon across the southern half of the Texas Panhandle, perhaps as far south as the Interstate 27 corridor to Lubbock. Should that occur, we may see minor snow accumulations.

Regardless of any snow accumulations, we are expecting one to three inches of rain over the next few days in those regions. Temperatures falling into the 20s Thursday night may result in any standing water freezing into ice – and that could prove problematic for some roadways and travel into Friday morning.

Forecast Texas Rain Totals

Forecast rain totals from this evening through 6 AM Friday

Forecast rain totals from 6 AM Friday through 6 AM Sunday

As far as rain totals go over the next five days, we’re expecting a majority of Texas to receive at least one-half to one inch of rainfall. The losers in terms of missing out will be the Borderland (El Paso), the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and the Trans-Pecos, where there may be enough rain to wet the ground. The Rio Grande Plains (Laredo, Zapata), Texoma, and Northeast Texas may also not receive much more than one-tenth to one-quarter inch of rain this week.

Forecast rain totals from this evening through 6 AM Sunday.

Otherwise, one to three inches of rain is expected on average across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas along and south of Interstate 20, Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, into the Golden Triangle and Piney Woods of East Texas. Actual rainfall amounts will vary locally, with some getting less, and some folks may end up closer to four or five inches of rain.

Based on the current forecast, we shouldn’t see a high-impact flooding event, with rain generally spread out over a day or two in most locations. However, we will see some street flooding, rises on creeks and streams, and the usual high water in trouble spots. I’m sure someone will manage to be the unfortunate person on the news for driving a vehicle into high water. No, Jerry. That isn’t a challenge.

Texas Temperature Forecast through the Weekend

Temperatures across the southeastern two-thirds of Texas, along with Far West Texas, will top out in the 60s and 70s today. As we see rain chances begin tomorrow, high temperatures where it will be raining will generally be in the 40s. That’ll be the common theme as the rain moves farther east on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Where it’s raining, high temperatures will only be in the 40s to low 50s. An exception will be in the Panhandle and West Texas on Thursday and Friday, where high temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 30s. Cool-weather will be in place across Texas on Saturday, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s and low 60s in Deep South Texas. A warm-up begins on Sunday without any arctic outbreaks through Christmas.

Is Santa going for a beach vacation?

A very preliminary look at the long-range, which gets us to Christmas, suggests we may be on the warm side of things this year. A fairly common theme, with an obvious exception, was last year – when most of the United States east of the Rockies dealt with an arctic outbreak and frigid wind chills (I remember since I got stuck walking the dog).