Isolated showers and storms remain possible during the overnight hours across far western Texas up into the Texas panhandle region. Severe weather is not expected, but a few of the stronger cells could produce some gusty winds and intermittent lightning. By early tomorrow morning, the activity across western Texas will have dissipated and any activity that manages to develop and maintain itself across panhandle overnight will have moved into western Oklahoma.

Tomorrow afternoon, there will be a conditional threat for severe storms along the dryline expected to advance into western north Texas by mid afternoon. At this time, a majority of the forecast models are not showing a whole lot of storm development in Texas. In fact, some are showing nothing at all. Most of the upper level forcing will be well north of the Red River, and the atmospheric cap will be fairly strong south of the Red River.  Early day precipitation across western Oklahoma may also send out a cooler pooling of surface air that will further inhibit storms from developing during the afternoon hours.  That said, if the cap can be breached, and the early day precipitation either fails to materialize or moves out of the region in time for good afternoon heating…the atmosphere will be conducive to at least one or two storms to develop south of the Red River which may impact western north Texas during the late afternoon hours tomorrow.  The main hazards with any storm that develops will be large hail, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Between now and then, we’ll be looking at mild lows overnight with increasing dewpoints as gulf moisture continues to stream northward.  Highs tomorrow will be slightly above normal with much more humid conditions than we’ve had over the past week.  We’ll be out chasing up in Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and my not be able to post the latest updates once we head out.  But check back tomorrow for David’s morning forecast blog which will include the very latest update on severe weather chances tomorrow!