15Z HRRR – Simulated Radar through 2 AM Tonight

Since our detailed blog update earlier this morning the forecast thinking has not changed appreciably. Scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two will remain possible through the late afternoon hours. This activity will not be severe. The real show begins after 5 PM when the first, potentially discrete, storms develop in Northeast Texas and East Texas. Those first storms will have the highest relative chance of producing a couple tornadoes through the early evening as they move northeast. Tornadoes are not guranteed today, but those discrete storms will have a low-end tornado threat with them for the first few hours of their life-cycle. Otherwise spotty hail up to the size of quarters and localized wind gusts over 60 MPH will be possible. Thunderstorm development will rapidly increase after 8 PM in Northeast Texas, East Texas, and southern sections of North Texas. These storms will become a nearly solid squall line as it moves east/south late this evening into the overnight hours. Some storms in the squall line may be severe tonight with wind gusts over 60 MPH. The tornado threat with the squall line will be very low. The storms tonight will be efficent rainfall producers. If we see storms sit/move over the same locations for an extended period a quick two to three inches of rain may fall. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated tonight, but localized issues may develop for a short time. While storms will continue into the morning hours Wednesday the overall severe weather threat should start to wane overnight.

The severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center remains essentially unchanged. The standard category 2 risk zone includes the eastern half of North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, extending south into portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. This zone is where a couple severe storms are likely tonight. While thunderstorm coverage will be relatively widespread with a solid squall line, not all those storms will be severe. We’ll keep an eye on things, but so far the forecast is on track.