A strong arctic cold front has quickly progressed through the northern half of Texas today. Temperatures north of the front have fallen into the 20s, 30s, and lower 40s. Meanwhile, temperatures across South Texas have soared into the 90s. Zapata takes the prize for managing to hit the century mark this afternoon. Much cooler temperatures will arrive in South Texas for the second half of the week.

The cold front has been progressing south more quickly than weather models predicted. I mentioned that a faster movement would probably occur in previous blog updates. However, some forecast adjustments have been made to account for the quicker frontal timing. Colder air arriving more quickly and colder temperatures than previously expected mean some changes for the winter weather forecast.

Meteorologist Jason Cooley will provide a detailed video briefing this evening to go over the timing, precipitation types, potential accumulations, etc. For my written update, I want to keep things simple and clear-cut. We all know Mother Nature makes forecasting winter weather just a bit difficult in the southern United States. There will be more changes to the forecast, and I’m sure a few surprises will be thrown in.

How Wednesday and Thursday could play out

At least minor ice accumulations are possible from multiple waves of light winter precipitation over the next couple of days. Freezing drizzle, or light freezing rain, is likely Wednesday morning across the Big Country, Northwest Texas, Texoma, and parts of North Texas. Temperatures in those regions will be in the teens and twenties. Even the lightest freezing rain will likely produce travel impacts on bridges, overpasses, and some surface roads. There is a chance of some freezing drizzle in the D/FW Metroplex tomorrow morning – but we’ll have to play it by ear (and trends this evening, hence Jason’s detailed update later on).

Simulated weather model radar from tonight through lunchtime Thursday. This graphic has the sensitivity turned up, so the widespread ‘freezing rain’ is likely freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain!

Spotty freezing drizzle or freezing rain may occur tomorrow afternoon further south – in the Hill Country, Central Texas, and more of North Texas. Impacts will likely remain more hit/miss, but some icy spots are possible where temperatures are below freezing. For surface roads to start icing up, we usually need temperatures in the 20s. More widespread frozen precipitation is likely Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning – with travel conditions deteriorating across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, Texoma, North Texas, Hill Country, and portions of Central Texas.

Not a major ice storm, but travel impacts are expected

How far south tomorrow night’s ‘ice’ issue becomes will depend on surface temperature trends. We’ll refine that over the next 18-24 hours, but the further north you go, the lower temperatures will be – and the more likely any freezing rain or sleet will cause more considerable travel disruptions.

For the most part, we’re talking about light winter precipitation. However, freezing drizzle and freezing rain is a significant concern with even minimal accumulations. There may be a few ‘thunderstorms’ tomorrow morning in Texoma and again on Thursday. Any thunderstorms in a sub-freezing airmass will produce significant sleet accumulations over a localized area. That sleet will rapidly accumulate and turn most surfaces, including roads, into skating rinks within 15-30 minutes. Yup – sleet storms are coming to visit some folks.

Precipitation intensity will decrease Thursday afternoon, and we should be in the conclusion-phase Thursday evening. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive on Friday. We may see another round of light winter precipitation in parts of Texas late Friday and into Saturday. We’re not touching that with a twenty-foot pole until we get into this first event. Still, minor accumulations of sleet and snow may occur in northern Texas. We’ll see how Mother Nature wants to behave.