We’ve been looking forward to El Nino this winter because it promised increased precipitation chances. Well, it took Mama Nature long enough, but Texas will finally get in on some of that rain… and snow?
Today and much of Tuesday will feature dry weather across Texas. Today will be warmer, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. Clouds will increase tonight, and Tuesday will be mostly cloudy to overcast across most of Texas.
Rain begins on Wednesday
An upper-level low pressure will slowly move into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas on Wednesday. That’s where it’ll probably sit through at least Friday, not in a big hurry to go anywhere else. That means several days of lift’ with abundant moisture in place across the western two-thirds of Texas.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Wednesday morning in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas, slowly spreading east into Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Trans-Pecos, and the Edwards Plateau into Thursday. Rain chances will increase across Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, and South Texas by Friday.
In reality, the weather forecast may be a bit more difficult than that, so it would be best for you to open up our free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app (available on Apple & Android products, and at https://texasweather.app) to get your day-by-day weather forecast.
Rain chances may continue into the weekend across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Most of the Ark-La-Tex, East Texas, and Southeast Texas may miss out on the rain until late in the week. Severe thunderstorms are not expected this week, at least based on the current weather model data. Winter weather? Well, that may be a different story.
A winter wonderland by late week?
Wednesday night through Thursday morning and Thursday night into Friday may result in a change-over to snow across parts of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas – with moderate to heavy precipitation. We will not have an Arctic airmass in place. However, there will be very cold air aloft under the upper-level low pressure. Known as dynamic cooling, strong upper-level storm systems can transport some colder air to the surface in heavier precipitation. Think of ‘Day after Tomorrow,’ without the whole end-of-the-world instant freeze situation.
The key is that this dynamic cooling process is only strong enough to cause a change-over to snow right under the area of lower pressure. If the low pressure’s track shifts south, we won’t see much snowfall (because temperatures in the Panhandle/West Texas won’t be cold enough, and comparatively warmer air farther south means it’ll still be too warm for snow).
However, if the upper-low track is close to the Panhandle and West Texas, we could see heavier, wet snow – and enough snow to cause accumulations. While on the low end of the ‘chance scale’ for now, this system could even result in a winter storm with significant snow accumulations (4”+) on Thursday and Friday in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas (Amarillo and Lubbock included).
Long-time followers know how tricky forecasting winter weather in Texas can be, and we generally expect surprises even inside the ’12 hour window’ from when an event begins. We’ll continue watching data, and we’ll continue to bring you our best guess on the snow forecasts.
Lake-filling rains where we need it
Even without any winter precipitation, our upcoming multi-day stretch of rain chances will bring beneficial rain totals across the western half to the western two-thirds of Texas by the weekend. On average, one to three inches of rain is possible across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the Coastal Bend. Some higher rain totals are possible, and we’ll have to watch for flooding by Thursday and Friday. Rain totals will be lighter across Far West Texas, the Trans-Pecos, and across Texoma, North Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Higher rain chances in the eastern third of Texas over the weekend could help increase those rain totals.
Temperature trends and notes
Bless!
After today, cooler temperatures begin infiltrating Texas from the northwest. Starting in the Panhandle and West Texas on Tuesday, high temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s across the northwestern/western half of Texas by Thursday – coincident with increasing precipitation chances. Temperatures this week will be highest in Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with 70s likely. 60s are likely across the southeastern half of Texas tomorrow and Wednesday before they, too, begin falling by late week as rain chances spread east
We’ll probably have another written update posted on the Texas Weather Blog (our website and mobile app) this evening, with our next Texas Weather Roundup video scheduled for Tuesday morning. As always, you can get your local weather forecast, interactive weather radar, updates from the Texas Weather Blog, and forecasting/storm chasing videos in our free mobile app and on our website. Have a great Monday, and God Bless!
Anything severe?
Bring us the rain, to central Texas.
Hoping for some snow in east texas
Ann Vars Callens Where in East Tx? We’re originally from Lufkin but relocated to Abilene for my husband’s job
Bring it to hardin county
Cj Martin
Mario Duran
Andrea Miles Montana Flores
Really hoping for snow in the panhandle
Chance Lancaster Northern TXP / OKP getting snow
Lower TXP only cold rain / sleet / small hail
Jordan Valdezan
My husband can’t work during downpours so I’m fine for it to rain at night. 😜
Texas Storm Chasers I was wondering if you can if you can put me back on your group I know you booted me off of your group last year and I really am sorry of whatever happened please put me back on fans of the Texas storm chasers
Being the $476m Dollars winner of the 2023 mega millions is a great gain. I vowed to help people in need of financial support, Being blessed with $476m dollars really meant a lot to me and I feel like I don’t deserve it as I know the real struggle people go through in a bid to make ends meet. Therefore I voluntarily decided to donate and touch the lives of men and women who have found themselves in financial crisis, to individuals around the world according to how God leads me to do. I try to reach people randomly from different sources and modes so as to touch lives from different parts of the world. Now I’m giving you an opportunity to share your pain with me drop a message for me and I’ll reply you. Respectfully:Johnnie Taylor
Why do yall want snow it’s disgusting lol
I’m not getting your YT or app notifications lately 😕
Spring Wallace-Grosenbacher Sorry! Our app notification went out on my personal device this morning, so it may be something on your device. ~David
Spring Wallace-Grosenbacher https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Texas Storm Chasers ok. I’ll check on it.
Currently 22 degrees in Mullin, Texas on our property
I’m going to pick up my new Harley this weekend. Of course it’s going to rain. You’re welcome.
Shawn A. Booth we thank you for your sacrifice lol. Same thing happened to my older brother when he got his from Gruene Harley, how awesome though! I can’t wait to get another one, I miss mine too much lol.
Shawn A. Booth we missed riding this weekend because of the winds on Sunday. Having withdrawal!
Monica Mimms Campbell
Jason Bryant
Chris Foley is this true?
Don’t play with me
29° in Gonzales
Joseph Gutierrez
Love the hat!
Darlene Hargrove Thank you!
Yes! Finally Winter!
No.no.no you keep the bad weather up in the panhandle
Dreama Johns 🙄 No we have to be nice & share our weather with the rest of TX cause “ Sharing is Caring “ 🤣 rofl
Ewww
And of course, El Paso is left out. 🙄
Terry Goodman You’ll probably get some rain, but probably just enough to wet the ground without any real benefit. Sorry 🙁
Texas Storm Chasers that’s about what they’re saying. Haven’t had any substantial rain all year. Not surprised it continues.
Terry Goodman https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Plz let this miss Central Tx we do not need no Ice plzzz
Cilla Bennett https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Steve Massey!!!! 😍
Finally!! Where my snow at!!
🙏 Snow gets to Abilene
Any moisture is welcome!!!
Not for Bowie County, apparently. 🤦♂️
West Texas is going to miss out????? I hope 🤞 we get some.
Sue Phillips what part of west Texas? Looks like we’re going to get rain in San Angelo, Odessa, Lubbock, Abilene, Eastland… lots of West Texas is expected to get rain this week.
ElPaso it’s always you don’t know until it happens. Come on rain.
North Dallas gets zero rain once again. 2023 has been the driest year. No thunderstorms either. 🤷🏼♀️
Says sunny all week and in the 60’s
I’m in SW Oklahoma an hour from the border, let it rain , awesome
Thank you for the heads up,
Great job 👍
I’m in SE Texas, Galveston County, would be SURPRISED if we received ANY frozen precipitation actually buuuuuut ANYTHING is possible right now?……lol
Bring on the rain but no snow please!
Send it down to Canyon Lake!
Lois Lillian yes!
Robert Stinson
Maybe for yall up north.
Kewl hat
I REALLY HOPE YALL ARE RIGHT!!!
This would be nice. I just checked the ten day forecast for Fort Worth. Only rain forecast, is 80% chance of rain on Friday.
Doug Erickson https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Mandaline Schwartz
Joe Mathis https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Joe Mathis snow 😍
Can you send some moisture to Minnesota? Never been before and sure would like a white christmas.
Sharon Williams https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
Sharon Williams you’ll get it, don’t worry yourself!! Lived there for 22 years and never had anything but a white freezing cold winter!
Shellie Lombardo I’m checking everyday. The snow they’ve had has melted!
Sharon Williams it will return. I promise!!
Sharon Williams one year, in 93’ it was 65 on 12/22 and -80 with the windchill on 12/24 …that was in ND, but hey- the snow won’t fail you for Christmas! And it will hang around till mid March, we’ve had blizzards in April up there before. It’s insane.
for a teeny tiny portion of texas
Allie Sisk https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
69 in Victoria Texas Right now!
Serena Martinez Cortinas https://t.me/+orF7EovpwH9iNWZk
No
I’ll believe it when it happens. Still dry as heck in Austin county
Yes!
U shut ur moth and keep that damn snow and ice to yourself. We don’t want that crap here, people are stupid enough drivers in texas to add that crap In the mix. If I wanted snow I would live up north!!!🤣
Please no, NO SNOW!
I want snowwww
West of ft worth rarely ever gets snow ❄️ .. infact north central Texas typically just gets flurries .. but we get ICE 🧊 an it’s far dangerous than snow …
Conni Self yep same for oklahoma
Boo!
Not excited about this at all, as I like to get outside when it’s not boiling hot
Y’all literally said it’s not gonna be cold in the next few weeks smh
Send some to FL too.
Rain, no snow.
Awesome 👏
Who has been looking for him? Not me leave him where he is! Please
Very useful
The El Nińo winter appears finally.
So much for the meteor shower. Womp womp
Kristie Otis Shackelford I said the same thing….😒
They’ve talked up the El Niño effect too much and it hasn’t produced yet. Not holding my breath for Central Texas
If they don’t stop spraying us with Chemtrails in Central Texas, we can kiss the rain goodbye.
Mitch Hawkins
We need rain too
Mark Adair
Tina Fidler 😩
Wichita falls will not get anything. But thanks
Patiently Waiting on sleet and snow forecast for Fort Worth! 🥰❄️🌨️⛄️🙏
Dusty Serio-Rodgers don’t forget us in Talty!! We need a blizzard!!!
Shirley you know your blood related when you’re both secretly, wishing and hoping for a winner storm to appear 😂😂😂
I want snow in East Texas!
Stacey Castorena Martinez maybe in a few weeks! Not anytime soon
BULLSHIT!!! I’ll believe it when I see it. El Niño MY ASS
Zoila Suarez
Great news
You don’t want a repeat of that ice storm.
So, it’s going to snow where 8 people live.
I prefer hot weather
Gerardo Jr Sanchez
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Wanting attention
Not nearly what I was expecting for El nino tho. We are still in drought
Upper TXP & OKP are getting ❄️
Lower TXP been cold 🌧 with small hail / some sleet
Been that way since wednesday morning 🙄
Moises Lopez
Moises Lopez
And as always our city officials can’t have a better answer than mine 🪖⚡🥞🍔🥞🍔🥞🍔⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔
And all I get is Happy Holidays you homeless ppl 2023 🪖⚡🪖⚡🪖⚡🪖⚡
And as always our city officials can’t have a better answer than mine 🪖⚡🥞🍔🥞🍔🥞🍔⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔🚒🚔
And all I get is Happy Holidays you homeless ppl 2023 🪖⚡🪖⚡🪖⚡🪖⚡
We don’t need snow!
We don’t need snow!
Not here Houston snow always in north no biggie just normal tbh oh well