A positive-tilt upper level trough developing over the southwest United States and northern Mexico will sweep east into Texas tomorrow night. The result will be increasing upper level lift over the state which will result in the development of precipitation overnight on Friday. The day tomorrow will be mostly dry for most of Texas except the western Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin where precipitation will start increasing during the later half of the day. Precipitation will become more widespread tomorrow night across the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Davis Mountains, Northwest Texas, and the Concho Valley. Rain chances will be high on Saturday basically across the western two-thirds of Texas making for a wet, cool, and cloudy day. Rain will continue Saturday Night across North, Central, South, East, and Southeast Texas with rain starting to tamper off across the western parts of Texas. We’ll see precipitation continue to move east during the day on Sunday gradually ending from west to east across most of Texas. By Sunday Night we’ll see any remaining rain confined to the Rio Grande Valley and extreme Southeast Texas.
The good news is we are not anticipating any significant winter weather or severe weather with this event. The latest rainfall numbers continue to suggest we’ll have three-quarters to one inch of rain accumulation from the Permian Basin northeast along I-20 into North Texas. We should see four tenths of an inch of rain up to three quarters of an inch of rain from the South Plains into Central and South-Central Texas. Lighter rain accumulations of a quarter inch up to half an inch are expected across Southeast Texas with negligible numbers in the Rio Grande Valley. Rain may mix with snow in the western half of the Texas Panhandle into the northwest South Plains at times. Overall snow accumulations are currently expected to remain less than one inch with a vast majority of folks seeing less than that. While not a significant rain event for the Panhandle by any means it looks like those folks could pick up 0.20-0.50″ of rain.