The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on the ‘blob’ in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As discussed over the last few days, our impacts will not substantially change. A tropical storm may form over the next day or two before the system moves inland into northern Mexico and southern Texas.
Coastal flooding is expected along the Texas Gulf Coast during high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday evening. Strong onshore winds will continue to pile up water on the coast, and gusty winds up to 50 MPH are expected. A few waterspouts may occur, and a low risk of spin-up tornadoes can’t be ruled out Tuesday evening into Wednesday across the southern half of Texas. This is not a repeat of our spring weather events.
Rainfall will be the most widespread threat from ‘the blob’ over the next several days. By Friday, We anticipate 3″ to 9″ of rain in South Texas, the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, South-Central Texas, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, into the Concho Valley. Localized maximum rain totals up to 15″ can be ruled out.
Flooding will likely become a problem beginning Tuesday Night in Southeast Texas and spreading west on Wednesday to the I-35 corridor across South and Central Texas. Urban locations may be particularly susceptible to significant flash flooding concerns. Where we see the heaviest rain bands set up, flooding will occur. Dry antecedent conditions under the heaviest forecast rain totals will initially help, but even dry soils can only absorb so much water before it starts to run off. This may be a beneficial rain event for several drought-stricken reservoirs.
We’ll keep Y’all updated on forecast trends, but hopefully, this will be a beneficial event in the long run. We have to make it through the short-term issues like too much rain falling in too short a period of time. ~David
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