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Slight Risk (Level 2) Of Severe Weather Overnight

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded their latest severe weather outlook to a Slight Risk (Level 2) for the Texoma/Northeast Texas region overnight.  While a strong capping inversion has worked well to keep storms from developing this afternoon across the region, that may change overnight with the arrival of a strong cold front.  As the front pushes into north/northeast Texas around midnight, there is a chance that the forcing will be sufficient enough along the frontal boundary to break the cap and allow some isolated storms to develop.  If the cap can be broken, any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe with large hail as the main threat.  The latest high-resolution short range models have begun developing storms around midnight to the north of the DFW metroplex, then moving them east along the Red River into northeast Texas before sunrise tomorrow.  Most of this activity should remain north of the I-20 corridor overnight; however, anyone within the Slight and Marginal risk areas will need to remain aware of the potential for severe weather overnight.  This has been a relatively recent development in these models as earlier runs had been keeping activity relatively quiet across the state during the overnight hours.  That said, here’s the latest animated forecast through the overnight hours.

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For the rest of the state…the aforementioned cold front will move through overnight and early tomorrow bringing a nice cool down and much drier air along with it.  This will give folks east of the dryline a break from the unusually dank and humid weather plaguing the region over the past several days.  Highs tomorrow will be cooler and pleasant behind the front…and it appears we’ll stay closer to seasonal averages through the remainder of the work week. By this weekend, we’ll begin heating back up again, especially across the panhandle and western portions of the state where highs will once again reach the upper 70s to low 80s.  And it looks like we’ll remain rain free until we get into the latter part of the weekend.

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Jenny Brown

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