Once again, we’ll be facing yet another day of severe weather potential across parts of the panhandle, rolling plains, Permian Basin and Trans Pecos area of west Texas.  Ongoing storms across the southern panhandle will continue to drift east this morning and are anticipated to dissipate before noon.  Short-range forecast models are unfortunately painting different scenarios for additional storm development across the Slight Risk region this afternoon, but shear and instability are expected to be robust enough this afternoon and evening for at least scattered development of strong to severe storms across eastern New Mexico which would then drift east across the state line. A lot will depend on how quickly the atmosphere across the southern panhandle can recover after this morning’s storms. Additional widely scattered development is expected further south across the Trans Pecos region as well.  Greatest threats today will be damaging winds in excess of 60mph, 2 inch hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for pockets of flash flooding.  The tornado threat is low, but not zero either, with the potential for a quick tornado spin-up or two.

Late this evening and overnight, most of the short-range models develop a complex of storms across southeastern Colorado moving into the OK and TX panhandle.  This squall line of storms will have the most impact across the northeastern panhandle into western and central/south central Oklahoma overnight.  By daybreak tomorrow, the southern tip of the complex may dip down into north Texas affecting mainly the Red River counties. This potential will need to be monitored late today and overnight as it could carry the threat of damaging winds along the leading edge of the storm complex.