The forecast for potential severe weather remains complicated this afternoon, but we are starting to get a slightly clearer picture. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a category 2 risk of severe weather for all of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas for this afternoon and evening. A category 1 risk includes portions of North Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and much of the Permian Basin. The strongest storms this afternoon may be more discrete and pose a threat of large hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The threat for tornadoes is very low. If we see any storms congeal into a cluster this afternoon in the Texas Panhandle or West Texas the threat for more widespread damaging wind gusts would increase. By early evening we should see a cluster of thunderstorms move southeast into the Texas Panhandle from Colorado and New Mexico. These storms will likely be on the stronger side with a threat of damaging wind gusts. Depending on the trajectory of the thunderstorm complex it could either move into and impact Oklahoma by mid-evening or push more southeast along the Red River. If the complex of storms moves more southeast, or develops further south, we could see a line of storms move into Northwest Texas and the Big Country by the mid to late evening hours. That aspect of the forecast remains uncertain and will likely be adjusted as we continue through the afternoon.

As stated in this morning’s post the forecast remains complicated today. One such surprise is underway now with a discrete severe thunderstorm very near Groom, Texas in the Panhandle. This storm is moving east around 30 MPH with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Now that we have a severe storm underway we’ll have to watch and see if we see any new ones pop up over the next two hours. I’d expect to see a few individual storms to pop up in West Texas after 2-3 PM, although that isn’t a guarantee. Storms that develop will tend to move east around 30-35 MPH. Keep an eye to the sky and we’ll do the same!