A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for North Texas, Central Texas, and the Hill Country. The watch is in effect through midnight, although it will be trimmed back from west to east as we progress through the evening. Those in the D/FW Metroplex, Waco, Austin, and Fredericksburg are included within the watch. A severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe storms capable of producing hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, localized wind gusts up to 70 miles per hour, and perhaps a few brief tornadoes.

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extends from near Wichita Falls and Bowie south to Mineral Wells, Stephenville, to San Saba, and north of Mason. Storms are behaving for now, with the tail-end charlie north of Mason an exception. We’ll be watching for a few severe storms this evening as the line of storms moves east. The atmosphere isn’t too unstable across North and Central Texas. While the atmosphere isn’t overly unstable, wind shear and lift are increasing. Those two factors may off-set the lower instability totals – or they may not. Hopefully, we can continue with a broad area of rain and storms versus more intense activity. It’s a close call, so we’ll be watching.

Simulated weather model radar from the 5 PM High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). This model is an aggressive one with storm intensity tonight – perhaps too aggressive. Use for general timing purposes, but remember that it isn’t written in stone.

We’ll keep an eye on the storms this evening as they continue moving east. We note a significant dust storm underway across West Texas, with light snow falling in the northwestern Texas Panhandle. Some dust may make it into the Big Country and Northwest Texas later this evening.