The Storm Prediction Center has issued a short-term update discussing the severe weather threat over East Texas. They’re expecting the squall line will continue for several more hours as it pushes east/southeast. Mainly, they’re watching Northwest Lousiana and East Texas for a continued threat of localized damaging wind gusts and some small hail. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out with the storms as low-level wind shear is quite strong.
Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019
Areas affected…Southeast AR…East TX…Northwest/North-Central LA
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22…
Valid 140907Z – 141030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22
SUMMARY…Threat for damaging wind gusts and hail will continue for
the next several hours.
DISCUSSION…Convective line continues to push steadily
eastward/east-northeastward across east/southeast TX, far southwest
AR, and far northwest LA. Northern portion of the line in the
ArkLaTex is moving a bit faster than portions farther south in the
Brazos Valley. This may bring that portion of the line to the edge
of the watch within the next hour. As such, an areal extension may
be needed across north-central LA.
Thermodynamic environment ahead of the northern portion of the line
(i.e. across far southwest AR, far northwest LA, and east-central
TX) is currently characterized by temperatures in the low 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. A similar thermodynamic
environment exists farther south in southeast TX, only with slightly
higher dewpoints. Some convective inhibition exists within this
modestly moist air mass but forcing for ascent along the front will
help overcome this inhibition, promoting the persistence of the line
for the next several hours.
Several strong updrafts exist within the line, one of which is
located in Marion and Harrison counties in TX with another in
Houston county TX. Hail is possible within these strong updrafts as
well as with any new updraft development. Damaging wind gusts are
also possible along the length of the line and near the strong
updraft in particular. Strength of the low-level shear (near 40 kt
from 0-1 km on the SHV VAD) may also promote the development of a
brief QLCS tornado or two.