The cluster of thunderstorms that impacted portions of Texoma and Northeast Texas this morning has mostly dissipated. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) – a fancy word for a small area of low pressure – may help new isolated to scattered storms develop this afternoon along the Red River in North Texas and in Northwest Texas. Some of these storms may extend south to Interstate 20 – or roughly along and north of a Graham to D/FW to Tyler to Marshall line. In the presence of an unstable airmass and modest wind shear, some of these storms may contain hail and produce damaging wind gusts. A majority of folks will remain dry with thunderstorm coverage expected to remain below thirty percent this afternoon.
The nightly thunderstorm express will continue tonight as an additional complex of thunderstorms moves southeast across portions of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, Northwest Texas, and Texoma. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) has isolated to scattered storms firing up by 5 PM across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Some of these storms will likely be strong with a risk of hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and localized wind gusts over 65 MPH. Within a few hours of developing those storms will congeal into a squall line. Like last night this squall line will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 50 to 75 MPH, quarter size hail, and a quick one to three inches of rainfall. Like yesterday the most intense storms should remain north of the Red River. Those south of the Red River could still be strong to severe but will be weakening by late evening as they move southeast into Northwest Texas and eventually North Texas late tonight. The line of storms may reach Wichita Falls around 10-11 PM, and in a much-weakened state could impact the Interstate 35 corridor from D/FW north to the Red River by 1-3AM Tuesday. Remember that these time estimates are only projections, and any additional development ahead of the line or small-scale features could cause these times to change.
As stated above the severe weather probabilities are highest in western and central Oklahoma. That is where the Storm Prediction Center has placed an ‘enhanced’ level 3 risk of severe weather, mainly to account for the risk of damaging wind gusts. A level 2 ‘standard’ severe weather risk includes the eastern Texas Panhandle. Finally, the ‘marginal’ level 1 risk includes the remainder of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Texoma, and northern sections (north of US 380) of North Texas where isolated hail/damaging wind reports are possible this afternoon and again tonight. All thunderstorms produce dangerous cloud to ground lightning – an especially serious hazard considering many may be outdoors over the next two days. When Thunder Roars Go Indoors!