At 2:10 PM the cold front extends from near Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth to Glen Rose to Hamilton to Fredericksburg to east of Del Rio. The threat of severe thunderstorms is much lower behind the cold front where drier air is moving in. This front is moving east/southeast around 15 MPH, but will accelerate later today as we start to see thunderstorms organize along it. Towering cumulus is common across D/FW and a sign that the capping inversion is weakening. Weather balloon data from about an hour ago shows that we still have a weak cap, but we expect that to be gone within the next hour or two. Upper level forcing combined with the cold front moving into a more unstable airmass. Once thunderstorms do start to develop they could do so quite quickly.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued a discussion indicating that a severe thunderstorm watch will probably be issued soon for portions of North Texas. We’ll have details on that watch when its issued. I expect we’ll see an additional watch issued further south, such as Central Texas and the Brazos Valley, later this afternoon. The primary severe weather hazards will be large hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging straight-line winds of 50 to 65 MPH. Once storms congeal into a squall line, which we think should happen fairly quickly, the most common severe weather hazard will likely be damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rains could cause some flooding issues.
I’ll leave you with a simulated radar image from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model for 7 PM this evening. Don’t expect this model to have the placement/locations down exactly right, but it gives a good idea that we’ll be dealing with a squall line moving into Northeast Texas and East Texas.