The upper level storm system responsible for our active weather this week is finally on the move. We’ll have to deal with one last day of widespread rain before the drying out process can begin. Shortly before 8 AM the low pressure was located near Laredo. The low will move northeast today and tonight with increasing rain chances throughout the day along its path. By Saturday the low will be in Northeast Texas with most precipitation limited to Northeast Texas. The highest rain totals through Saturday morning will be on the northwest side of the low’s track. These rain totals will be low compared to the multi-inch totals expected out east. An additional quarter inch to one inch of rain will be possible across Southwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Big Country, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. While not enough rain to cause new flash flooding there certainly may be issues in locations already dealing with high water. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Widespread severe weather is unlikely. An isolated strong storm with small hail could occur.
As rain chances diminish this weekend we’ll see temperatures start to rebound upward. This weekend and the first half of this upcoming week are looking warm with high temperatures peaking in the 80s+ across Texas. There will still be isolated showers/storms on Saturday and Sunday – but most folks will stay dry.
A quick-moving upper level storm system will bring the chance of severe storms to Far Northeast Texas on Sunday. By far the highest severe weather probabilities will be in Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Storms may fire up in Far Northeast Texas before booking into Arkansas. We’ll have to be on the lookout for some hail and localized gusty winds. If there is going to be any tornado threat I do believe it’ll be as storms mature in AR/LA. Besides Sunday’s threat it looks like we should have a couple days of dry weather.