After three days of thunderstorms producing localized wind damage across parts of the state we’re going to see coverage die down today. Central, South-Central, and Southeast Texas still have a 10 to 20 percent chance of storms this afternoon. Compared to the 30 to 40 percent chances on Monday and Tuesday we’ll see less activity today. By tonight rain chances will be near zero across all of Texas.
Temperatures will climb into the 90s this afternoon with 100-101 degrees across the Permian Basin and Deep South Texas. Another decently cool night across Northeast Texas later on wiht low 60s. Mid to upper 60s across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas plus the Alpine Mountains. Everyone else will be in the mid 70s for overnight lows into Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Erika remains relatively disorganized this morning east of the LEsser Antilles in the Atlantic. Several hurricane hunter flights have been keeping a close eye on the system. Wind shear and bouts of dry air are keeping the system from organizing. We do not anticipate much in the way of strengthening over the next two days as Erika continues to struggle for life. I would not be surprised to see the system succumb to wind shear and degenerate into a tropical wave.
However if Erika does survive the next two to three days (which is a 50/50 chance) then Southern Florida has a real threat of being impacted by the storm. As Erika moves north of the Dominican Republic this weekend conditions will become much more favorable for development. By Sunday Night the National Hurricane Center has Erika on miami’s doorstep as a hurricane. There remains considerable uncertainty with this storm or even if it will survive the next two days. Without a doubt though a lot of folks will be keeping a close eye on things. I recommend you do the same if you’re heading to southern Florida this weekend or early next week.