Quiet conditions expected overnight with slightly cooler overnight temps as dry air continues to filter into the state from the east. To our west over the southern Rockies, a ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature with a few subtle disturbances expected to ride the periphery of the ridge as we head towards the weekend. This weak disturbance is expected to push a cold front into the northern portions of the panhandle tomorrow and across the southern panhandle by late Friday. Unfortunately, the front will not make very much progress into north Texas and is expected to stall out close to the Red River by early Saturday. Chances for rain tomorrow evening and overnight will be primarily across the panhandle due to lift created by the approaching front and upper level disturbance. By Friday, we’ll see chances for rain again…this time across the southern panhandle, possibly northwest Texas and right along or just north of the Red River as the front sags south. Severe weather is unlikely, but there is a good chance a few of the storms will become strong with gusty winds, small hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning as the main threats. Definitely something to keep your eye on Friday evening as High School football games resume.
Temps overnight…pleasant with less humidity as drier air continues to work into the region. A ribbon of higher dewpoints through the center of the state will keep lows a bit higher here, but elsewhere, we’ll be seeing upper 60s which is definitely nice for late August. Highs tomorrow will be seasonal for this time of the year. A few locations across west central Texas and down along the Rio Grande could see temps at 100 by tomorrow afternoon, but elsewhere, we’ll see mid to upper 90s for most.
The latest reports coming in on Tropical Storm Erika indicates that she’s still struggling for life. She’s expected to move into an area of moderate to strong westerly wind shear over the next two or three days, and she may even go through a weakening phrase as she tracks northwest across Puerto Rico and up towards the Bahamas. The latest forecast model guidance is also showing a slight eastward shift of her track. One thing of interest showing up in both the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro (European Model) is an increase in intensity by the time she reaches the Bahamas, and development into a hurricane just as she reaches the southeastern tip of Florida. While that is not set in stone, and model guidance should in no way be trusted this far out, it’s a trend we’ll certainly be watching over the next couple of days.