Tropical Storm Bill has formed 155 miles southeast of Galveston with maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Baffin Bay to High Island on the Texas Coast and just inland – including the Houston Metro. A tropical storm warning means sustained winds of 38+ MPH are expected within 36 hours. This does NOT change the rain forecast for inland areas and we continue to project a dangerous flash flood event.
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AS TROPICAL STORM BILL FORMS…
…EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS…
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Baffin Bay to High Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 94.2 West. Bill is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast
track the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning
area along the Texas coast Tuesday morning and move inland over
south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening is
forecast after the center moves inland on Tuesday, and Bill is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression Tuesday night.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4
to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Louisiana and western Arkansas, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Upper Texas coast…2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast…1 to 2 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.