Texas and the southern United States remains in a relatively quiet pattern as the subtropical jet sits over the Gulf of Mexico and the northern jet sits across the northeast United States. The result is a continued period of warm and quiet weather. Thursday will be a beautiful day with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies will be clear with no chance of precipitation. We’ll see winds turn out of the south today but remain relatively light.
By early next week the subtropical jet will return to Texas with a series of impulses. The relatively quiet weather this week will allow for rich moisture from the Caribbean to flow northward not only through Texas but into the northern plains. Thus the stage will be set for a return to stormy weather by next week. At this time a widespread severe weather event does not appear to be on our doorstep – but the threat for isolated to scattered afternoon supercells looks to increase beginning on Tuesday and into next week. Many factors will determine the overall severe weather risk each day and a cap may prevent storms all together. We’re on May’s doorstep and the heart of our severe weather season. We’ll be watching things closely and will keep y’all informed.