Last night’s complex of storms that moved southeast across the state has left the atmosphere behind it rather stable, the wind fields erratic and somewhat scoured of moisture for the time being.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk of severe weather across the panhandle and western Texas for today; however, the ability for the atmosphere to recover in time for severe storm development this afternoon is a bit unclear.  However, there is a possibility that storms which form across eastern New Mexico this afternoon may try to make a run for west Texas and the western panhandle regions later this afternoon and evening.  If this does materialize, especially if we see greater than expected moisture recovery across this area, we could see some widely scattered strong to severe storms with the typical threat of large hail and damaging winds.  If these form, they could continue into the overnight hours once again, but again the outlook on this is unclear at this time.  Elsewhere, across north and central Texas, conditions are expected to remain quiet today with just a low chance of seeing pop-up showers and storms, but not enough to ruin anyone’s picnic plans.

A look ahead – A slow moving upper level trough is expected to set up to our west through much of this work week ahead.  A cold front will also be sagging into the state as well which will help to focus rain and storm development along and ahead of it.  This will bring multiple chances for rain and storms especially during the middle part of this week.  Each day’s activity will be dependent on what happens the day before, so pinpointing who will be affected each day this week is impossible for now.  We will have to take that one day at a time as we get into the forecast for tomorrow and through the week.  At any rate, it looks like we’re in for some healthy rainfall totals…a bit unusual for this late in the season, but if this helps to keep us out of drought this summer, we’ll take it.  At this time, it does not appear that this rain will fall all at once, which will help preclude the chance of widespread flooding.  However, we already have drenched soils from recent rainfall across central and southeast Texas, so the possibility of flooding will have to be carefully monitored.