A particular overgrown squirrel predicted spring would come early this year. Mother Nature has a different idea. I know there are going to be many of you wondering about snow at your place and how much may fall. Let me be clear that we’re still two days away. When forecasting winter weather in the Southern United States, that’s still a long way out.

Being a snow weenie myself, I can emphasize with those wanting to see large snow totals forecast for their location. Please understand that I simply cannot be that specific at this time range. Mother Nature always throws in surprises with winter weather forecasting in the southern United States – and usually, those surprises aren’t detectable more than 18 to 24 hours in advance.

I’ll tell you what we think may happen and what overnight data is showing for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Regardless, some folks are going to be disappointed come Wednesday. That’s just how it works with snow in the south.

A significant winter storm is becoming more likely Tuesday night and on Wednesday across several regions of Texas. You wouldn’t know that by stepping outside today. High temperatures will once again be well above average for early February this afternoon. Most folks are going to top out in the upper 60s all the way up into the lower 80s. An exception will be those in the northern Texas Panhandle where crashy the cold front will arrive this afternoon.

Speaking of crashy the cold front, this one is going to have an arctic airmass accompanying it. Yup, that means you’ll know the front has arrived at your location because winds will start howling out of the north, and temperatures will drop faster than your wallet’s cash supply at a car dealership. Euphemisms aside, our spring-like weather is coming to an end, at least for a little while. The animation above shows the cold front’s projected timing beginning this evening and continuing through Tuesday night. It should make it through all of Texas by Wednesday morning. Gusty north winds and unpleasant wind chills will visit all of Texas by Wednesday morning.

These are the latest snowfall forecasts from the National Weather Service. I see no reason to differ from them at this point. I do want to emphasize that not everyone in the winter storm watch will see big-time snows. Some may see much less snow, and some could see more. We may see small, but potent bands of snow produce much higher snow accumulations. Those higher snowfall totals would be localized with amounts varying considerably over small areas.

‘Banding’ features can’t be determined until we’re closer to Tuesday night and Wednesday. The overall snowfall accumulation numbers and locations will shift some today and tomorrow as we get higher-resolution weather model data.

A winter storm watch has been issued for areas where confidence is higher in significant accumulations of snow along with hazardous travel conditions Tuesday night and much of Wednesday. That’s the key message I want to get out this morning.

 

An expansion of the winter storm watch may be required later today, depending on what morning weather model data shows. We are anticipating a much more significant chunk of real estate to come under ‘winter weather/travel advisories’ for Tuesday night and Wednesday once we get a bit closer. Those who are expected to receive the heaviest snows will be upgraded to a winter storm warning.

It’ll be a close call for the D/FW Metroplex on whether or not we see impactful winter weather. Surface temperatures are projected to fall to around 31 degrees Wednesday morning. That would allow rain to change over or mix with sleet and snow. If temperatures end up being closer to 28 degrees, we’re likely going to have a much more impactful winter weather event in the metroplex.

As it stands now, we may have to deal with slick overpasses and bridges in the D/FW Metroplex on Wednesday (higher chances across the west/north, lower to the east).

I plan on posting a new blog after dinner this evening. Hopefully, I’ll be able to be more specific on accumulations and overall impacts, especially for those who may be ‘right on the line’ of experiencing winter mischief. Remember, forecasting winter weather in the southern United States can be a crapshoot. We’re just the messengers. Mother Nature is the ring leader.