Yesterday marked the first day of astronomical spring across the Northern Hemisphere. Today, Mother Nature will act like it with the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, more wildfire danger, and a quick-hitting winter storm. The winter storm aspect is limited to the Texas Panhandle tonight and Tuesday morning. We’re anticipating another active day of wildfires across the western third to the western half of Texas – behind a surface dryline. For this morning’s weather blog, we’ll be discussing the severe weather threat that will materialize this afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Our Chasing & Coverage Plans

Multiple members of our team will be chasing later today and we’ll have their live video available for viewing on our YouTube channel and here on our website/mobile app. Once the event begins to unfold, I’ll begin continuous live severe weather coverage on a majority of our social media platforms and here on our website/mobile app.

Today’s Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather outlooks use a five-level risk scale. One is the lowest and means a limited/isolated severe weather threat. Five is the highest, rarely issued, and reserved for significant tornadoes outbreaks or a derecho. The higher the risk level, the higher the chance is for severe storms within twenty-five miles of any given location, such as your home.

Please do not nitpick or get hung up on the exact line placements. Outlooks are updated multiple times a day. If you’re within or near any risk zone, you could have a severe storm near your location. Mother Nature doesn’t always consult our maps, as is evident if you’re a long-time weather follower.

Updated Severe Storm Outlook as of 8am Central Time

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of Texas this afternoon, this evening, and late into the night. The severe thunderstorm risk does not include Deep South Texas or the western third to the western half of Texas. As initially stated, folks not dealing with storms will be dealing with other weather hazards.

Our focus for a higher likelihood of multiple severe thunderstorms later today will be across North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, east into the Arklatex, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains.

Basic Storm Timing

The threat for severe thunderstorms may begin by 2 PM in the eastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas. Farther east and south, the threat for severe storms will likely increase quickly after 3 PM. The severe weather threat along Interstate 35 from the Red River to San Antonio (including multiple major population centers) will generally be from 3-4 PM onward through 9 PM.

For folks in the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and some of Southeast Texas, the severe weather threat will be highest from dinner-time through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Folks in Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains may have to wait until late tonight for thunderstorms – but they could be just as intense as storms earlier in the day.

Storm Threats & Impacts

Stronger storms this afternoon in the Panhandle and Northwest Texas may produce large hail, localized damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. All modes of severe weather are likely with thunderstorms across the remainder of the risk zone. Destructive hail up to the size of baseballs and a strong, long-track tornado are all possible. We all hope today’s threats don’t materialize and everyone can make fun of the overreacting weather folks tomorrow. Be prepared, not scared!

Detailed timing information and discussion

Showers will be ongoing across some, if not most, of the eastern half of Texas by mid-morning. Warm-air advection will be the primary cause of the morning rains. By lunch-time, we’ll see thunderstorms start firing up across Texoma, North Texas, Northeast Texas. A few stronger storms are possible with hail, but I think storms will remain relatively behaved through the early afternoon.

The scenario I’m about to describe is what could happen today and tonight. Small-scale weather features will likely throw in a couple of surprises, and we all have seen days where the forecast can change quickly. With my usual disclaimers out of the way, let’s dive in.

Stronger thunderstorms will likely develop around 3 PM from the eastern Panhandle and Northwest Texas, southeast into North Texas. While we’ll be watching the dryline for initial storm development, I also want to keep an eye further east if we see any ‘rogue’ storm development. Storms will generally be moving quickly to the northeast at 45 to 55 miles per hour.

Development of intense thunderstorms is likely to occur between 3 PM and 5 PM near or just west of Interstate 35 in the Hill Country and Central Texas. Large to damaging hail will quickly become an issue as the most intense storms become supercelluar. We hope storms will rapidly grow upscale into a squall line.

Any discrete storms, or semi-discrete, will have the potential to produce significant severe weather – including tornadoes. A strong, long-lived tornado is possible. Thunderstorms, scattered to numerous, will move northeast across North Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. The evening commute could become dangerous for some major population centers along Interstate 35.

The most intense storms are likely to be producing significant severe weather, including the threat of tornadoes. Storms in a line would have a higher chance for damaging winds and embedded tornadoes versus damaging hail. We’ll also need to watch for any storms ‘ahead’ of the main round of storms in Northeast and East Texas this evening – since they could try to become problematic themselves.

As we continue into the mid-evening, additional thunderstorms will likely develop further southwest into the Brazos Valley and Coastal Plains. Those storms, likely also severe with a threat of all hazards, will move northeast into Southeast Texas overnight. A line of strong to severe storms will finally progress across East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle Tuesday morning.

We should be done with the severe weather threat by mid-morning Tuesday in Texas. We’ll enjoy several days of quiet weather for the remainder of the work-week. Have a great Monday and stay safe!