Clouds have been increasing across the Borderland, West Texas, and across the combined Panhandles this afternoon as our next weather maker makes its approach. For most of Texas, we’ve seen clear skies and seasonably toasty weather. At the time of this writing, Wichita Falls was at 79 degrees, Abilene and Del Rio up to 81, and our typical hot-spot of Texas, Laredo, up to a balmy 84 degrees on this December afternoon. Warm weather fans will be happy, while the snowbirds may end up being happy this weekend if they’re up in the Panhandles.

Taking a peek from above, it doesn’t take a weather weenie to see our upcoming weather maker over the four corners. Snow is flying across parts of New Mexico and western Colorado. The first light precipitation is just arriving in Dalhart. Our rain chances will increase tonight from Northwest Texas south into the Concho Valley. Rain is likely on Friday at times across the eastern half of Texas.

Rain Totals with Tomorrow’s System

While rain chances are high, forecast rain totals are not. Rain amounts will generally be between one-tenth of an inch up to a one-half inch in Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley. and Southeast Texas. Those in Northeast Texas and East Texas could see up to one inch of rainfall. Locally higher amounts are possible if any stronger storms develop tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Severe Weather Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a ‘marginal’ risk of severe weather tomorrow across eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. We’re talking about a risk level of one on a five-level risk system. The atmosphere isn’t expected to become all that unstable tomorrow, hence the limited threat for severe storms. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front moves southeast.

Localized damaging wind gusts and small hail are the primary concern with any stronger storms. The tornado threat is expected to be minimal (not zero) due to a linear storm mode and the lack of more robust instability.

Storm System #2 (Saturday Night & Sunday)

We should be done with most precipitation by late Friday evening as the rain moves off to the east. Saturday should be relatively quiet in the weather department. Still, another storm system could bring winter weather to the Panhandles, Oklahoma, and perhaps even parts of Texoma (Red River). One considerable uncertainty in the forecast is the track of the fast-moving upper-level storm system this weekend. A northern track would keep winter weather chances limited to the northern Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma. A track farther to the south would bring snow chances farther south into West Texas, Northwest Texas, Oklahoma, and perhaps Texoma. We’ll keep an eager eye out and talk more about the weekend system after we get past tomorrow.