I hope everyone has been enjoying the return of sunshine and warm temps this week!  This trend will continue over the next several days as high pressure continues to dominate the overall weather pattern across the state.  Rain chances will be minimal tonight and tomorrow with the best chances across far west Texas and the western panhandle region…and for coastal Texas along the daily seabreeze front.  For the panhandle/west Texas regions…disturbances along the western edge of the high pressure ridge over the state will generate storms across the mountains and eastern plains of New Mexico each afternoon.  These storms may make it as far east as the I-27 corridor each day, but with little in the way of mid or upper level steering currents, their eastward progress will pretty much become dependent on outflow-generated storms that push east out of New Mexico.  Any storms that make it across the border will likely produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours, but not much in the way of any severe weather.

Weather Nerd Moment!  What is the daily seabreeze anyway?  The sun heats both the ocean and land each day at pretty much the same rate; however, heat is absorbed by water more efficiently than land, so by mid-afternoon, you tend to see a large temperature variance between the air onshore versus offshore. Sometimes, that variance can be as much as 15 to 20 degrees.  A difference in air pressure also develops…lower on land and higher offshore.  Naturally, winds flow from areas of higher pressure towards areas of lower pressure which creates the daily seabreeze.  This process acts very much like a cold front, only it’s moving inland from the south rather than the typical north to south orientation we see in other regions. With the land onshore being warmer, a boundary develops each day along the seabreeze front that can generate lift and become a focus for localized pop-up showers and storms as peak daytime heating is reached.  That’s the seabreeze in a nutshell!

Temperatures each afternoon this week will continue to be seasonal and pretty close to where they should be at this time of the year.  By later this week, we’ll see the high pressure ridge weakening and beginning to drift east as our next upper level pattern shift begins to move in from the west.  This will introduce the chance for more widespread showers by the middle of next week.  Until then, enjoy this drying out period!