To say the weather will be undergoing a big change over the next 36 hours may be the understatement of the week. High temperatures this afternoon will be above-average across Texas with highs peaking in the lower 60s in Northeast Texas all the way up into the lower 80s in the Permian Basin into Deep South Texas. The Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Big Country, and Northwest Texas will make it well up into the 70s today. By tomorrow afternoon those locations will likely be in the 10s and 20s with wind chills below zero.

Strong southerly/southwesterly winds will continue across the state today thanks to a strengthening area of low pressure in Colorado. Those winds, plus compressional heating ahead of our upcoming arctic front, will allow temperatures to stay warm today, tonight, and tomorrow ahead of the cold front. The strongest winds, up to 60 MPH, are expected in the western Texas Panhandle. Gusts over 70 MPH are possible on passes and on the peaks of mountains in Southwest Texas. Make sure you’ve secured your outdoor items and bring Charlie Brown inside.

Mist, drizzle, or even a few light showers will be possible today along and east of Interstate 35. Overall rain amounts will be very light and probably just enough to wet the roads. Temperatures will be well above freezing today and tonight, although that might be obvious by the fact many will be wearing shorts this afternoon. Drizzle will continue tonight across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas with temperatures staying in the 60s and lower 70s. Fog is also a decent possibility.

As stated previously low temperatures will not get below the 60s to lower 70s tonight across East Texas, Southeast Texas, into the Middle Coast and South Texas. This is due to warm air advection and increasing moisture ahead of our upcoming cold front. This forecast low temperature graphic ends at 7 AM on Saturday. At that point you can see we should have the leading edge of the cold front extending from the southern Texas Panhandle, into Central and Eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures behind the front will quickly fall into the 30s – with the 20s not far behind. The Texas Panhandle will likely drop below freezing late tonight and stay below freezing until next week.

While the timing of the cold front may still need to be adjusted an hour or two faster or slower, we expect the front to start pushing into the Texas Panhandle after midnight tonight. Temperatures north of the front will immediately fall into the 20s with wind chills in the teens. Winds will abruptly switch around out of the north and become gusty up to 45 MPH. A classic blue northern if I have ever seen one. By around 6 AM the North American Model (NAM) has the front along an Amarillo to Pauls Valley (OK) line. By 3 PM Saturday it has the front is along an Andrews-Abilene-D/FW-Paris line. Finally by around 9 PM on Saturday the NAM has the leading edge of the front near Fort Stockton to Rocksprings to New Braunfels to Conroe and Jasper. Temperatures south of the front on Saturday will be quite warm, probably warmer than today with highs in the 70s and 80s. Once the front arrives at your location you can expect a 20 to 30 degree temperature drop within an hour. The freezing line by 9 PM Saturday will be in the Concho Valley to Central Texas and East Texas. Single digit temperatures are expected in the Texas Panhandle with snow. Wind chills will range from 10 below in the Texas Panhandle to the lower teens in North Texas and the Big Country. North winds will be brutal behind the front and through the weekend.

There is a low-end risk of a few severe storms in Southeast Texas during the evening hours Saturday. The moisture-rich air mass ahead of the cold front will certainly support the possibility of organized convection. However, a strong cap will limit potential thunderstorm development. I expect the cap will hold through much of Saturday, and may even prevent thunderstorm development all together until the front is east of Texas. If a few storms are able to break the cap and develop tomorrow evening the atmosphere would support rotating supercells. As such, the marginal risk of severe weather would include a conditional threat of a brief tornado and gusty winds. We would need storms to develop first, and that is not a guarantee. Higher storm chances and thus the higher severe risk are in Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama late tomorrow night.

On the other side of the spectrum we have the potential for accumulating snowfall in the Texas Panhandle on Saturday. At this time snow accumulations look to remain light with a potential of half an inch in the southern Texas Panhandle up to two inches near the Oklahoma Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma border. Due to north winds up to 40 MPH any snow that falls will blow around and reduce visibility. Temperatures in the single digits and teens means snow will accumulate on all surfaces, including roads, with no difficulty. Expect slick and hazardous travel conditions on Saturday and Saturday Night in the Texas Panhandle east into Western and Central Oklahoma. Even half an inch of snow, accumulating and blowing around on roads, will make them slick. While snow should stop falling late Saturday, the strong north winds will keep blowing snow possible into Sunday with even more difficult travel conditions and visibility reductions.

Here are the temperature forecasts through early next week. Keep in mind that the high temperature forecast for Saturday may occur earlier in the day if the cold front is progged to arrive at your location before 3-4 PM. Once the front arrives temperatures will drop in a hurry. For example, D/FW has a forecast high of 66 which will likely occur around lunch-time. By dinner temperatures will probably be in the mid 30s with a wind chill in the upper teens. We do note that McAllen has a forecast high of 90 degrees on Saturday, which will be a stark contrast to the single digit temperatures in the Texas Panhandle.

Temperatures will negative digits in the Texas Panhandle Saturday Night into the morning hours Sunday. With half an inch to one and a half inches of snow possible I would not be surprised to see the northern Texas Panhandle make it into the negative single digits for lows. Amarillo has a low of 2°F by Sunday morning with wind chill values of -15° expected. It will only take a few minutes of outdoor exposure to create frostbite to unprotected skin. Temperatures will fall into the teens as far south as the Concho Valley to the D/FW Metroplex and Northeast Texas. Take measures to protect your pipes.

Temperatures will not get above freezing on Sunday north of the Concho Valley to D/FW Metroplex. Highs will remain in the 30s in Central Texas, the Permian Basin, into the Brazos Valley. North winds will wind chills stay in the teens to twenties across most of Texas. The Rio Grande Valley will have wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day Sunday.

Monday morning’s lows will be in the teens as far south as the Hill Country to Central Texas and Northeast Texas. THe freezing line will make it into Deep South Texas to the coast in Southeast Texas.

We will slowly moderate early next week, but Monday and Monday Night will still be cold and dry. Tuesday will be slightly warmer as will Wednesday. The storm system we were watching for next week looks less likely at this point. After this weekend’s system our next focus will shift to a potential Christmas storm system. Let me be clear – Christmas is 9 days away. There is little skill in accurately forecasting that far out, especially in an active winter-time pattern. One model run may show snow while the next shows temperatures in the 60s with thunderstorms. Don’t believe any hype you see from your local media or on social media. A storm system around Christmas is on the table, but beyond that we simply won’t know until we get much closer in time.