An unusually busy stretch of weather, even by springtime standards, will continue through the second week of May. Near-daily chances for severe thunderstorms, renewed flooding concerns, and a turn toward summer-like heat and humidity are on tap as we head into next week.
Yesterday, we witnessed another active day with tornadoes in the Big Country and Concho Valley. These storms, which we initially expected to dissipate in the Hill Country last evening, instead grew into a complex. This complex has now made its way into Southeast Texas, bringing with it heavy rainfall, flooding, and pockets of severe weather throughout the night. Currently, these storms are centered in Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle.

This morning and afternoon in the eastern third of Texas

Be prepared for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain throughout the day across the eastern third of Texas. These storms may bring gusty winds and hail the size of pocket change. Given the already saturated soils and major river flooding in parts of the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas, heavy rainfall is our primary concern. Any additional rainfall could exacerbate the situation.

Severe Storms This Afternoon into Saturday Morning

This afternoon, our focus will once again be pushed west with our next round of severe thunderstorms. Much like yesterday, but beginning about 100 miles further west, isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to develop in West Texas, the Permian Basin, into the Big Country, and Concho Valley. Erratic storm motions due to splitting supercells and cell mergers are probable.

Some storms will move northeast with a threat of very large hail and damaging winds. A few storms will move southeast with very large hail, damaging winds, and a low tornado risk. Low-level wind shear won’t be particularly strong, but there’ll be enough to support at least a low tornado risk. Mesoscale accidents, as we like to call them, will probably result in small corridors of increased tornado potential.

This evening, thunderstorms will grow upscale into one or more clusters. Those clusters, or lines, will move east toward Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Brazos Valley, parts of East Texas, and Southeast Texas late tonight into Saturday morning. The strongest storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rain.

Saturday’s Storms into Next Week

Tomorrow afternoon may play out much like today, just 150 miles farther west. That’ll place Southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Trans-Pecos, and perhaps up into West Texas under the initial threat before storms grow into clusters or lines that march east across Texas into Sunday.

Active weather, including daily thunderstorm chances, may continue across northern portions of Texas on Sunday and Monday. We’ll deal with those risks as we get closer, but hopefully, they’ll be less potent than the past week. Tuesday may be fairly quiet, while we get busy again by Wednesday of next week with severe thunderstorms and heavy rain potential in Texas.

Summer Preview on the way

Outside of thunderstorm chances, the southern half of Texas will be getting hot next week, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to near 110 degrees. Extreme humidity and dewpoints will result in excessively unpleasant heat index temperatures for the eastern half of Texas. All of Texas will be getting warmer next week, with an early summer preview.

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Video Timestamps

00:00 – Introduction
01:00 – This morning’s storms
02:10 – Severe storms this afternoon & night
03:07 – Storm Timeline & Discussion
05:16 – Saturday’s Severe Storm Risk
07:30 – Sunday’s Risk
08:25 – Monday’s Risk
09:21 – Tuesday’s Risk
09:52 – Wednesday’s Risk
11:06 – Forecast Rain Totals & Flooding
12:50 – Texas Wildfire Outlook
13:16 – Getting hot next week
16:56 – Baldyinchiefisms
20:06 – Spinny Doomer Shoutouts