The Storm Prediction Center has placed Texoma in a category 2 risk of severe weather for late afternoon and this evening. Wichita Falls, Bowie, Decatur< Denton, Gainesville, and Sherman are included in this risk zone. A category 1 severe weather risk includes more of North Texas – along and north of a Breckenridge to Stephenville to Dallas line. The primary window for strong/severe storms will be after 4 PM and through 10 PM – although I can’t rule out storms continuing past that along the Red River. Scattered storms are possible along the Red River with isolated storms south to Interstate 20. A majority of folks won’t be impacted by storms today – and those that are impacted should only be impacted for an hour or two.

Any thunderstorm today and tonight will produce dangerous cloud to ground lightning. This lightning will be extremely hazardous to those outdoors and/or on lakes. If thunder roars go indoors. That means get in a car or sturdy structure. If you see a thunderstorm approaching or developing in your proximity get off the lake. The atmosphere will be quite unstable owing in part to the summertime moisture levels in place. Wind shear levels will be marginal, but higher than what we’ve dealt with over the past several weeks. That slight increase in wind shear will promote more organized thunderstorms. The strongest storms could produce destructive straight line winds and sudden downbursts. Some wind gusts could top 60 MPH in localized areas. If we were to have a complex of thunderstorms organize along the Red River the threat for more widespread 50-70MPH wind gusts would increase. The overall atmospheric setup today does favor strong to severe wind gusts. Small hail can’t be ruled out but hot temperatures in the low-levels of the atmosphere will result in rapid melting. Brief heavy rains could fall but the flash flooding threat will be localized.

The experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model seems to be doing a good job at depicting potential storms later today. The best chance for storms (scattered at that) will be along the Red River late this afternoon and during the evening hours. Storm chances lower with southward extend from the Red River. Only isolated coverage of storms is expected by the time you get to Interstate 20 in North Texas. We’ll be watching for storms that develop in Oklahoma to move south towards the Red River later today. In addition a few storms may develop in western North Texas and make progress towards Interstate 35. If you end up under a storm it should be gone after an hour or so. Remember that lightning can strike 20+ miles away from a storm, especially in a summertime enviornment.