The next several days will feature temperatures well above average for mid-November. The hottest weather should be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and to a lesser extent on Thursday. Highs will range from the upper 70s into the upper 80s. A few spots may approach previously recorded record highs. While the upper 70s to 80s may not sound hot in comparison to the summer, we are now well into November. Our average high temperatures are in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit more variable depending on which part of the state you’re located in. Where higher moisture content is in place temperatures won’t fall below the 50s with the possibility of morning fog. Where a drier airmass remains temperatures should be able to fall back into the 30s and 40s. A dry airmass also heats quite efficiently during the daytime so be ready for some big temperature swings.

Changes arrive by late week in the form of a strong cold front. An area of low pressure will be located in eastern Colorado on Thursday. A tight pressure gradient will set up over Texas with strong winds expected for most of the state. The highest winds, possibly gusting over 50 MPH, are expected in the Borderland, West Texas, into the Texas Panhandle. With strong winds and near record high temperatures also expected on Wednesday in those regions the fire danger will be very high. As our upcoming cold front moves through a given location winds will become gusty out of the north/northwest and temperatures will quickly fall. The front’s timing is still open in a twelve hour window, so we’ll wait on specific timelines for arrival until the data settles down. At this point we should have the cold front move into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas on Thursday. It’ll quickly move south through most of Texas on Friday; leaving most of the state in a much drier airmass by Saturday morning.

A few thunderstorms are possible near and east of Interstate 35 late Thursday Night into Friday as the cold front pushes through. Timing differences preclude more specific information at this time. A few storms may be strong. We should have a much better idea on any convective potential by tomorrow.

The airmass behind the upcoming cold front is going to be extremely dry. Dewpoint values will fall back into the single digits to teens. A few spots (Texas Panhandle and South Plains) may even see dew points fall below zero on Thursday. The dry airmass combined with high pressure this weekend should allow overnight low temperatures to fall into the 20s, 30s, and 40s across the state. It’ll easily be the coldest airmass we’ve seen so far this fall (if you can even call this ‘season’ fall.) High temperatures will range from the lower 50s into the middle 60s this weekend.