The updated severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center have been released. We note they have expanded the level 2 severe weather risk, the standard risk when it comes to severe weather outlooks, into more of the Big Country and South-Central Texas. Big Lake, Ozona, Junction, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Pearsall, Kerrville, and all of the San Antonio metro are now included. A level 1 marginal risk runs from the Permian Basin into Central Texas south through the Coastal PLains and South Texas. Initial thunderstorm development is possible from Midland south to Alpine around 6 PM this evening. Those initial storms may be supercellular in nature with a large hail threat. The atmosphere will be unstable in the mid-levels but the surface looks like it will only become marginally unstable. Hopefully that will keep storms elevated and with that the tornado threat very low. I can’t rule out a brief tornado in the level 2 risk zone tonight – but its not something we’re overly worried about. A complex of thunderstorms should form late tonight and move east across the Hill Country into South-Central Texas and the Rio Grande River Valley. Localized wind gusts over 60 MPH along with hail would be possible with stronger cells in that complex. For timing aspects on tonight’s storms please read our blog from this morning.

The risk for severe weather will spread into Southeast Texas by Tuesday morning. A level 2 risk, the standard risk of severe weather, includes all of Southeast Texas. It runs roughly along and south of a College Station to Lufkin and Center line. The risk will likely spread into the region as ongoing storms from South-Central Texas moves east into the region. Additional discrete storms may develop ahead of that complex. The strongest storms could produce quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts. We’ll be watching for any discrete storms that move on-shore or develop inland across Southeast Texas during the morning hours Tuesday. Low-level wind fields will be strong thanks to an intensifying low pressure moving northeast into Louisiana. Those discrete cells would likely rotate and would need to be watched for isolated tornado potential. Most of the severe weather threat will move east of Texas by early afternoon as the low pressure does the same. Precipitation will continue on the backside of the low through Tuesday afternoon in North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. We do note the severe weather threat really increases to our east in Louisiana, Mississippi, into the southern half of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk issued with the potential for significant tornadoes. They’ll take the brunt of the severe weather threat while Texas, once again, deals with the beginning of the event.