Showers and thunderstorms are moving east across Northeast Texas and Far Southeast Texas at the time of this writing. None of the activity overnight has been severe and we don’t expect it to become severe this morning. Some lucky folks may end up with an inch of rain before activity exits the state later this morning. Flooding won’t be an issue. The stronger cores may be able to get tall enough to produce small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain can also be expected from those stronger storms.

Skies will quickly clear from west to east later this morning as that precipitation exits Texas. By this afternoon I expect mostly sunny conditions across most of the state. There may be a few clouds here and there. There isn’t a cold front with this morning’s storm system so temperatures won’t fall. In fact this afternoon will be warm across all of Texas. The warmest readings will be in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with middle 80s to upper 80s likely. 70s are expected this afternoon across Southeast Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, west into the Permian Basin. Even Northwest Texas, the South Plains, the Big Country, and Concho Valley will get near 70 this afternoon. Lower to upper 60s are expected across Northeast Texas where we have the storms this morning.

Low temperatures the next couple of days will also be above average for February. Moisture levels will increase this week with fog likely an issue each morning in some locations. Only a few spots in the Panhandle, West Texas, and the higher elevations around Alpine will approach freezing. Everyone else will be in the mid 30s to low 50s. The Rio Grande Valley will only bottom out in the upper 50s tonight with fog.

Thursday’s High Temperature Forecast. Circles indicate the forecast temperature is near/exceeding the current record for that day.

Temperatures will continue to rise this week. Right now the warmest day appears to be Thursday when several locations are already forecast to hit or exceed record high temperatures. The Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, Big Country, and Permian Basin will easily soar into the 80s. The Permian Basin could even see a few sites approach 90 degrees.