Rowdy weather has already returned to the Texas Panhandle this morning, with hailers making a ruckus in places like Dumas down toward Bushland, Amarillo, and Groom. The morning storms should be dying off by 9-11 AM, but we’ll need to see how any remaining outflow boundaries or cloud cover play into this afternoon’s storm chances.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely to begin developing after 3 PM CT across eastern New Mexico south into the Guadalupe Mountains in Southwest Texas. Superceulluar storm modes are anticipated with large hail, localized damaging winds, and a very low tornado threat as storms move east. By dinner time, storms could be approaching the Texas/New Mexico state line, and moving east into the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and northern Permian Basin. Like most nights last week, we’ll see storms grow upscale into one or more clusters, that then continue moving east well into the night across the aforementioned regions with heavy rains and strong winds. All of that ‘fun’ may continue well into the night.

Same story for Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening, except it may be a less active day with fewer storms, and less ‘oomph’ available for storms that do develop. Nevertheless, a few severe storms with hail, strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are possible in the Texas Panhandle.

Friday has the potential to be an active severe weather day across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, and Edwards Plateau. A strong upper-level storm system, especially for June, will be coming in from northern Mexico. Increasing amounts of wind shear (kinematics) combined with plenty of moisture and instability (thermodynamics) may set the stage for a busy severe weather day and night. Rain chances look to expand further east into Texas this upcoming weekend, but details remain murky. Don’t go changing your plans just yet.

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00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Today’s Severe Weather Outlook
01:55 – Today’s Storm Timing
02:52 – Thursday’s Severe Weather Outlook
03:32 – Friday’s Severe Weather Outlook
05:29 – Hydrometeorological Concerns (Heavy Rain & Flooding)
07:28 – Texas Temperature Forecast through the weekend
08:51 – Final thoughts & Baldyinchiefisms

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