Today's upper-level weather pattern

The final week of June will not exhibit the usual summer-time weather we expect in Texas. Earlier this month, I said we would remain hot until September unless we had a magical summer cool front or a tropical cyclone. Well, we will have a cool front arrive later this week, but our weather over the next several days will feature an atypical upper-level weather pattern. The same weather pattern bringing historic heat to the Pacific Northwest is shoving the upper-level jetstream back south – much farther south than we typically see it during the summer.

Chance of precipitation across Texas this week

With tropical moisture, little to no capping (lid on the atmosphere), and lift provided by several upper-level storm systems, rain chances will continue across Texas today, tomorrow, and through much of the week. It will not constantly rain everywhere this week, but there is a high chance everyone in Texas will see rain at times. Increased cloud cover this week will result in comparatively cooler daytime temperatures. Don’t get me wrong, it will still be warm and humid – but ‘less hot.’

Today’s Rain Chances & Timing

Simulated weather model radar today and tonight. Summer-time storms are more 'popup' than our spring/fall weather patterns. Use this simulation as a hint at storm coverage versus specific locations.

Simulated weather model radar today and tonight. Summer-time storms are more ‘popup’ than our spring/fall weather patterns. Use this simulation as a hint at storm coverage versus specific locations.

Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous later this morning and this afternoon. Organized severe thunderstorms (large hail, widespread damaging winds, tornadoes) are not expected. However, thunderstorms in a summertime tropical airmass can produce microbursts with localized 45-70 MPH winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning. It won’t surprise anyone, but tropical rains can put down a quick one to three inches of rain. Localized flooding is probable where those downpours occur in conjunction with saturated soils.

Flash Flood Risk

Today’s highest risk of flooding seems to be in the Borderland, West Texas, Guadalupe National Park, and south into Big Bend National Park. We’re also keeping an eye on the Upper Texas Coast and the Golden Triangle. A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico could generate a focused area of heavy rain in those two regions. We’ll have to watch for slow-moving thunderstorms dropping two to three inches of rain an hour – for several hours. That scenario would cause a rather problematic flooding threat to develop, but the threat appears to be localized at this time. Isolated instances of flooding are possible across Texas this week. Tropical cyclone development with the Gulf of Mexico disturbance is not expected.

Forecast Rain Totals through Mid-Week

Forecast rain totals through mid-week

Most, if not all, of Texas, should receive at least some rain by Thursday. It may not be much for some folks, but it still counts! On the other side of the spectrum, we’re expecting a good one to two inches of rain from El Paso and the Borderland east through the Permian Basin, West Texas, and Northwest Texas. Good rains are forecast across the Texas Panhandle, the Big Country, and the Concho Valley. A comparative lull may occur in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, increasing rain totals along the coast due to the aforementioned Gulf of Mexico disturbance.

A cool front is expected to move south into Texas by the end of the workweek. Rain chances will increase across much of Texas once again on Thursday and Friday. We’ll have to keep an eye out for localized flash flooding, along with rising water levels on rivers and lakes. I’ll be honest, though – this week’s rain forecast is a Godsend for drought-parched West Texas. We don’t get these ‘wet summers’ very often anymore, so it is good to see (as long as we don’t get too much rain).

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