It has become a warm afternoon as most of this morning’s fog finally burned away. That low-level grunge, fog, and occasional mist will redevelop this evening and through the overnight hours. Locally dense fog is possible. Spotty light showers are also expected overnight and into Saturday. An isolated thunderstorm may occur in North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas late tonight and on Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Southerly winds will continue to pump moisture inland across Texas tonight. The result will be lots of low-level overcast along with that pesky drizzle previously mentioned. Lows will struggle to get below 50 degrees across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. A comparatively drier airmass across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, into the Trans-Pecos and the Borderland will allow for pleasant overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
Unseasonably warm temperatures both during the day and night will continue through the weekend and for the first half of the upcoming week. High temperatures by Sunday will top out in the 70s to lower 80s across much of Texas. These temperatures will be a good 15 to 25 degrees above average for the first week of February. Overnight temperatures will likewise be warm as higher dewpoint values (moisture) remains in place. That means low-level overcast, fog, and mist will be a nightly occurrence into next week. Warmer temperatures and dormant surface fuels (grasses, brush, etc) could result in elevated wildland fire danger, even though soils remain soft/wet.
A stronger cold front is expected to arrive on Thursday. That front will bring an end to the well-above normal temperatures along with a return of precipitation chances. Just how cold it gets will depend on the path of the arctic airmass. By that I mean will the arctic airmass plunge south across the Plains in our direction or be shoved eastward toward the Tennessee Valley. That determination will dictate the southward progress of the cold front and next weekend’s temperature forecast.