Hurricane Harvey has made landfall as a catastrophic category 4 hurricane between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor – the strongest hurricane since Carla on September 11, 1961. This is only the beginning of catastrophic impacts Harvey will bring to parts of South-Central, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains. There is a likelihood of several tornadoes across coastal regions and adjacent sections of Southeast Texas (south of Interstate 10) tonight as feeder bands continue to move onshore. Be alert! Harvey is expected to generally move slowly to the northwest tonight and tomorrow, stall out on Sunday and Monday, and perhaps start moving south/southeast back toward Port Aransas and Rockport on Tuesday. It is expected to remain a tropical storm through that period. If Harvey makes it back to near the Gulf Coast. Regardless of any tracks, this unbelievable hurricane makes – historic flooding is expected across the Coastal Plains into Southeast Texas. For the rainfall forecast (which will be catastrophic) please see Jenny’s detailed blog from an hour ago. Click here for her blog.
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
…EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS…
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey has
just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San
Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over
southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h)
and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h).
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Port Aransas to Port O’Connor…9 to 13 ft
Port O’Connor to Sargent…6 to 9 ft
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Port Aransas…5 to 8 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…4 to 6 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in the Port
Aransas to Port O’Connor area and should spread over other portions
of the hurricane warning area during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the
hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm
conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through
at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.