The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a narrow corridor of southern Oklahoma and the Red River counties of North Texas to an ‘enhanced’ level 3 risk of severe weather. This risk is expected to be during the evening and overnight hours. We should see a complex of thunderstorms fire up after 5 PM from the Texas Panhandle extending eastward into Oklahoma. The best combination of wind shear, moisture, and instability will be across the southern half of Oklahoma south into Texoma and the adjacent North Texas counties. Initial storms across the Panhandle and Oklahoma may exhibit some supercelluar characteristics with a threat of hail. It should not take long for storms to grow upscale – or congeal – into a squall line or complex. That complex will tend to move southeast this evening with a threat of damaging straight-line winds. The highest potential for 45-75 MPH winds tonight will be in southern Oklahoma and along/north of Highway 380 in North Texas. Storms should be weakening as they approach Interstate 20 in the Big Country and North Texas, but gusty winds and heavy rain will remain threats well into the night. By 7 AM Saturday, a few showers and storms may still be moving south into the Hill Country and Central Texas but should be well below severe limits by that point.
The High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) gives a good idea of how tonight’s scenario will play out. We’ll see storms fire up along a cool front in Oklahoma by the early evening hours. Those storms will congeal into a southeastward-moving squall line that moves into Texas after 10-11 PM from Oklahoma. Depending on how far west the storms fire up we may see storms impacting parts of Northwest Texas and West Texas by the early evening hours – those may also produce strong winds and hail.