The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center pushes the slight risk further south along the coastal bend. The persistent upper level low spinning over northern Mexico will continue to slowly shift east today and Thursday. Lift from several pieces of energy ejecting from the low will bring multiple rounds of storms, some severe, across the Slight Risk region this afternoon. So far, most of the storms this morning have remained below severe limits with only a few instances of strong wind, hail and periods of very heavy rain. Cloud cover and persistent rain will help to stabilize the atmosphere; however, for areas along the immediate coastline…which has thus far not been as affected by continuous precipitation… could see the atmosphere destabilize enough later this afternoon for a couple of strong storms. Damaging winds and some hail will be the main threats, but wind shear is projected to be sufficient to get storms rotating with a possible quick tornadic spinup.
As David mentioned in his earlier blog, widespread flooding and flash flooding issues are anticipated to increase as constant heavy rainfall continues to impact the south central Texas and coastal regions. Where lines of storms setup and train repeatedly over the same areas will be the most impacted. Below is a look at the latest precipitation outlook through midnight tonight from the HRRR short-range model.