An enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) has been introduced for the Big Country and Concho Valley. A large possible risk zone (level 2 of 5) includes the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Hill Country, and the western half of North Texas. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) includes pretty much all of Texas. Looking at the latest data it really looks like today’s main severe weather threat will be large hail. Golfball size hail will be possible with the stronger storms. If we end up with an intense supercell it’ll be capable of producing tennis-ball size hail and perhaps a tornado. Damaging wind gusts are also possible with flooding always a concern nowadays.
Thunderstorms may also develop along residual outflow boundaries across Northwest and North Texas this afternoon. A special weather balloon sounding will be launched at 1 PM from Fort Worth to analyze the current state of the atmosphere. Some of those storms may be severe.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) seems to have a good handle on today’s setup. It develops the first stronger storms just after lunch near Caprock Canyon in the southeast Texas Panhandle. From there we see additional storms fire up in the western portions of the South Plains. Storms should move southeast and eventually form into a squall line by early evening. This line of storms looks like it will impact the Concho Valley, Big Country, and Hill Country this evening. As the squall line moves southeast it may bow out with a threat for damaging winds. The initial thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Here’s a loop from the HRRR showing what it thinks will happen through this evening. Times can be found in the top-right part of the graphic but note they are in eastern.