Parts of the southern panhandle, northwest and west central Texas may see a few isolated strong to severe storms develop over the next couple of hours. Storm coverage, if any, will be scattered and not widespread, but could quickly become severe with ample instability to work with. So far, what’s trying to develop has struggled with only a few blips showing up on radar thus far. This area will continue to be monitored throughout the evening. Just be aware if you have outdoor plans this afternoon in this region of the state.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 242015Z - 242145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING. DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.