SHortly before 8 PM our focus was on several thunderstorms located northwest of Fort Worth. These storms were in the form of a broken line from near Graham northeast to Bowie. The storm near Bowie is capable of producing quarter size hail and localized wind gusts up to 60 MPH. These storms are being caused by a cold front that is moving southeast. As the front continues to move south additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The general timeframe for rain and storms in D/FW will be from late this evening through the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Severe weather is not expected in the metroplex but a few strong storms may produce small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Localized minor flooding is a possibility in the typical trouble spots and construction zones.

Here is what the High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather model is showing at 2 AM.

hrrr_ref_dallas_10

An upper level low in conjunction with the slow-moving cold front will alow for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. With abundant moisture in place and the slow-moving nature of the storm system we certainly will be dealing with a rather high-end precipitation event from the Hill Country and South-Central Texas into Southeast and East Texas. Rain totals are going to be impressive with an average of two to four inches from the Hill Country and Southwest Texas into South-Central, Southeast, and East Texas. Those amounts in themselves suggest the potential for some flash flooding and river flooding. There is the potential for training convection or areas here heavy rain keep moving over the same areas. Some locations may see six to eight inches of rain through this weekend. It goes without saying but any location that ends up with six or eight inches of rain this weekend could see flooding. Those high amounts are expected to be localized, but we’ll have to watch where we see those highest totals set up this weekend.

Forecast rain totals (average amounts) through Sunday evening.

Forecast rain totals (average amounts) through Sunday evening.

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Flash Flood Watches have been issued for Friday evening through Sunday across South-Central Texas into Deep South Texas. We’ll likely see portions of East and Southeast Texas go under a Flash Flood Watch tomorrow to highlight the potential for very heavy rains and potential flooding.

…HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY…

.A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.

TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-218>225-228-201000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0002.150320T2100Z-150322T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LLANO…BURNET…GEORGETOWN…
KERRVILLE…BANDERA…FREDERICKSBURG…BOERNE…BLANCO…
SAN MARCOS…AUSTIN…BASTROP…GIDDINGS…UVALDE…HONDO…
SAN ANTONIO…NEW BRAUNFELS…SEGUIN…LOCKHART…LA GRANGE…
CRYSTAL CITY…PEARSALL…PLEASANTON…FLORESVILLE…
KARNES CITY…GONZALES…CUERO…HALLETTSVILLE…CARRIZO SPRINGS
955 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…ATASCOSA…BANDERA…BASTROP…
BEXAR…BLANCO…BURNET…CALDWELL…COMAL…DE WITT…
DIMMIT…FAYETTE…FRIO…GILLESPIE…GONZALES…GUADALUPE…
HAYS…KARNES…KENDALL…KERR…LAVACA…LEE…LLANO…
MEDINA…TRAVIS…UVALDE…WILLIAMSON…WILSON AND ZAVALA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES FROM SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

* RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS…LOW WATER CROSSINGS…AND URBAN
AREAS NORMALLY SUBJECT TO FLOODING. RECENT RAINFALL ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LED TO
SATURATED SOILS WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH
LESS RAINFALL THAN USUAL…POSING AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA…PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

___________________________________

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY…

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUS
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE…AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING…ESPECIALLY IN
LOWER LYING AREAS.

TXZ229>234-239>247-200415-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0002.150321T0000Z-150322T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…COTULLA…CALLIHAM…CROSS…
LOMA ALTA…TILDEN…GEORGE WEST…THREE RIVERS…BEEVILLE…
GOLIAD…VICTORIA…LAREDO…FREER…BENAVIDES…SAN DIEGO…
ALICE…ORANGE GROVE…KINGSVILLE…CORPUS CHRISTI…PORTLAND…
INGLESIDE…ARANSAS PASS…SINTON…MATHIS…ROCKPORT…REFUGIO…
WOODSBORO…PORT LAVACA
308 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…
ARANSAS…BEE…CALHOUN…DUVAL…GOLIAD…JIM WELLS…
KLEBERG…LA SALLE…LIVE OAK…MCMULLEN…NUECES…REFUGIO…
SAN PATRICIO…VICTORIA AND WEBB.

* FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES

* RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS…CREEKS AND STREAMS…LOW WATER
CROSSINGS…AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

______________________________