Now that the sun has set we’re hearing many more reports of slick and hazardous road conditions. Be especially cautious on bridges and the usual trouble spots if you must travel tonight. Patches of light freezing drizzle are possible tonight across North, Northeast, and East Texas.
The freezing line extends from Van Horn southeast to Kerrville, Austin, College Station, Lufkin, to Alexandria Louisiana. Temperatures north of that line are below freezing.
The winter storm has exited Texas to the east; however additional small ripples of upper level energy will promote the development of some sleet/snow showers tonight from the Concho Valley and Big Country east into North Texas. Little in the way of additional accumulation or precipitation is expected but don’t be surprised if you have a few flakes flying.
Patchy freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain will be possible tonight from the Brazos Valley into Southeast Texas (north of the Houston Metro). Widespread travel issues are not expected but again a few icy bridges may occur. A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect tonight.
Light snow is moving across the Northeast Texas Panhandle into Northwest Oklahoma. This precipitation will exit the Texas Panhandle by 8:30 PM with little accumulation expected.
The big change to the forecast is for Wednesday morning. An upper level low pressure system will pass over parts of North and Northeast Texas early Wednesday morning into the morning hours. Surface temperatures are expected to be at or just above freezing as this occurs. This upper level low has very cold air associated with it and with enough lift it could produce an area of local, but heavy snow. The track of this low will determine exactly where the snow band sets up. At this time we believe this will be from the D/FW Metroplex in North Texas east/northeast over much of Northeast Texas.
Here is a graphical explanation for Wednesday Morning’s system. Unlike the system today where we had high confidence in the track Wednesday’s system is a whole different ball game. If the low tracks farther north so will the heavy snow. Further south and the snow will have to be moved south. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the northeastern part of North Texas including the D/FW Metroplex. Current data suggests the heavy snow band will set up somewhere in this area but once again I emphasise that could change dramatically based on where everything sets up. SNow amounts under this band of snow will average 1 to 3 inches but there could be locally enhanced totals up to 6 inches. Thundersnow will be possible and this will be a heavy, wet snow. Isolated power outages and tree damage could occur along with the usual traffic snafoos. These impacts will be localized to where the heaviest snow band sets up. We’ll have a more detailed analysis of the Wednesday setup after evening model data arrives tonight.