We’re starting off this blog update by emphasizing that a lot of what happens tomorrow with regard to severe weather across north Texas will be highly dependent upon what happens overnight across Oklahoma.  That said…here’s the current thinking on how storms will evolve overnight and tomorrow.  We currently have a frontal boundary stalled diagonally across Oklahoma from about Ft. Smith, Arkansas down to around Wichita Falls.  In Texas, the stalled front drapes from about Wichita Falls down to around Big Spring.  Overnight, the portion of the front around Wichita Falls is expected to lift northward towards the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma.  An abundance of storms is expected to develop overnight from the Texas panhandle into southwestern and possibly central Oklahoma as a piece of upper level energy arrives.  This cluster of storms is expected to move eastward across western and central Oklahoma during the nighttime hours carrying a threat of large hail and damaging winds and very heavy rain.  Storms are expected to be ongoing tomorrow morning across central Oklahoma which will likely send outflow boundaries south towards the Red River Valley region by mid-day.  Where this outflow boundary ends up is likely to become the focus for late afternoon and early evening severe storm development on Friday. The airmass to the south of the front and east of a dryline across western north Texas will become moderately unstable.  Any storms that can form within the warm and unstable airmass across north central and northeast Texas tomorrow afternoon will have the threat of becoming severe with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two…although the window of opportunity for tornadoes will be pretty small.  A cold front will begin moving south across Oklahoma by Friday afternoon we’ll see storms quickly fire up into a squall line along the leading edge of the front as it moves south/southeast across the northern half of our state by late tomorrow evening and during the early overnight hours.  Best guess right now at timing of impacts in the immediate DFW area would be 7pm-ish Friday.  With the squall line, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.  The front will move through fairly quickly on Saturday reaching the coastline by around noon.  Conditions behind the front will be cool and dry for both Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures overnight on Saturday will be chilly for late April with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the northern half of the state…so definitely a dry and pleasant weekend ahead!

 

-Current simulated radar between now and 1pm tomorrow-

danhogan