The primary weather focus through Tuesday will be unseasonably hot weather conditions and the potential for record-high temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft has allowed a return to summer conditions across the state. Not only will temperatures be annoyingly hot, but the eastern two-thirds of Texas will be well entrenched in a moisture-rich environment. Rain chances will be low for the next few days as well.
High temperatures this afternoon will be dangerously close to the triple digits in the Texas Panhandle and Rio Grande Valley. I do think one or two spots in those regions could actually make it to 100 degrees this afternoon. For comparison most of the previous record high temperatures in the Panhandle are in the upper 80s. We’re not talking about approaching record high values today, we’re going to be smashing them by late morning. Red Flag Fire Conditions are anticipated across the Texas Panhandle today – with critical risk of fast moving grass fires. Elsewhere in Texas high temperatures will range from the upper 80s into the middle 90s. The sad thing is today isn’t even the hottest day – Monday should be a few degrees warmer.
Temperatures will remain well above average on Monday with numerous cities in danger of approaching or exceeding record high temperatures. Upper 90s are anticipated in the Rio Grande Valley, the Permian Basin, and in the northern Texas Panhandle. Readings in the upper 80s to middle 90s are a good bet in the remainder of Texas. Compared to say, August, these temperatures wouldn’t be out of the norm. However, we’re now well entrenched in fall and in the middle of October. Temperatures will be a good 5 to 25 degrees above average for this time of year. Overnight temperatures are also well above average with some spots only getting down into the 70s. I want fall, darn it!
Luckily for us we do have relief in the forecast. A strong cool front will begin moving south into Texas on Wednesday. This front will take its time on Wednesday and probably won’t make it too far south of the Red River during the daytime hours. Folks in the Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas will notice relief with high temperatures falling back into the 70s. Everyone else will remain very warm with 80s and 90s. By Thursday a strong high pressure to our north will help push the front south further into Texas. Timing of the front’s passage through specific locations will need to be refined as we get closer to late week. By Friday the front should have pushed through all of Texas – even in the Rio Grande Valley.
High temperatures on Friday should top out in the 60s and 70s across ALL of Texas. Not like last week with the front only making it down into the Hill Country. This upcoming front will bring heat relief for the entire state. By Saturday morning temperatures will be well-entrenched in the fall category with light sweater weather for some. There will be some rain chances with this upcoming cold front, but rain amounts look low at this time.